ショート

DJIA triangle to sell?

アップデート済

looks like DJIA is forming a triangle pattern.
if it is true, wave e should not move beyond wave c (24850).
estimated sell targets are: 22729, 21482, and 19464 (extensions of 26621-23368 price movement).
actual targets should be updated when triangle is clarified.

ノート

if price moves beyond 24850, primary alternative is a flat correction of 26621-23368 price movement. (wave (C) may go beyond january top).

ノート

confirmed.
it's not a triangle.
the structure reminds me GBPUSD in march 2017.
In early march I changed my evaluation from bearish to bullish.
while most of respected wave analysts were still convinced, that gbpusd was forming a bearish triangle in early april 2017.

トレード稼働中

Well, 5 waves structure of wave (C) looks like completed.
its trend line is broken.
if it's right, DJIA is expected to resume its downfall trend.

I will prefer to wait till price falls below 1 std of 24 or 50 MA on daily chart for additional confirmation. Now it's just few pips above one with 24 period.
Price is below 1 std of ma24 and ma50 on H4 chart.
Keep an eye on it!

Big picture:

Long term sell targets: 20115, 22133, 23381 are based on fibo extensions of winter drop in DJIA.

トレード稼働中

As I told, upward correction can bring price above historic high.
That's what actually happened.
Price exceeded all time top and dropped fast.
here is big picture:

bear market is expected to last for a long time.
detailed picture:
next drop is expected after correction pattern is completed.
1) alternative presents us a running flat, which can be already formed.

2) alternative assumes that wave b is a wave 5, which is an ending part of 5wave impulse. so a-b-c correction pattern is far from being formed.

トレード稼働中

as you see, my forecast works well.
161.8% - 21683$ target is close.
next target is 261.8% - 18436$.

I found an old chart with my original drawings.
how close my forecast was to actual price movement...?
my original analysis suggests that this bear market should end in late 2019.
it also accurately predicted the month of the end of big bull market - jan 2018.

now I've reconsidered my analysis:
if my assumption is right and this current bear market is wave (IV), which corrects wave (III) [price movement from jun 2010 to jan 2018], we should expect bear market to last till late 2020.
if this current bear market corrects wave V [jan2016-jan2018 price movement], we should expect bear market to last till may 2019 or dec2019.
current price - 22445 is 38.2% retracement of this movement

トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達

161.8% - 21683$ target is reached.
actual price dropped to 21712.5 and then bounced back by 5.3%
what next?
1) bear market is done and we should expect further surge of DJIA price.
2) bear market have just completed 1st wave of bigger drop. so price might continue downward move after a reasonable correction.