ショート

New opportunity to add in my dollar position

アップデート済

After breaking through the support zone, a retest occurred, accompanied by a 61% Fibonacci retracement.

Thursday's GDP data will be the deciding factor for market movement,
We can anticipate two potential outcomes:
1. If the GDP exceeds expectations, investors may feel more secure, and as a result, dollar prices may not increase significantly.

2. A worse-than-expected GDP could trigger fears of a potential recession, leading to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This increase in demand could drive up the price of gold and weaken the dollar significantly.

ノート

today s economic data (Building Permits, New Home Sales) were better than expected which caused the dollar rally that much and canceling the 101.6 zone,
data effect has finished as we see the volumes are cooling down so we can predict a possible rejection of the 101.8 zone and continue to fall.

トレード終了: ストップロスに到達

The strong 101.6 zone was broken as a result of high-volume dollar buying by investors, driven by better-than-anticipated US housing market data that is expected to positively impact tomorrow's GDP.

ノート

" Tomorrow there is a risk of a fresh sell-off of the dollar after release of data on orders for durable goods in the US. After a 1% decline, a 0.7% rebound is expected, the market may not be prepared for a weak print and may shift Fed expectations towards a more dovish one in cases of a downbeat print." by tickmill expert blog

We'll hold off until tomorrow to see if the durable goods data turns out to be worse than anticipated. If it does, we'll wait for a favorable opportunity to initiate another sell-off.

ノート

on the technical side, If the price breaks the minor trend, there is a potential for rejection from the major trend .

ノート

my swing trade is still going, rejecting the minor trend, releasing some profit before the Durable Goods Data to compound the add in loss.

ノート

My assumption that the price would drop was proven wrong when it didn't reject the supply zone and instead continued to rise, possibly due to the positive news from the housing market.
so no one say that i got stopped out from my intra day position with one pips before the price crashed down 😂
PS: still in profit

ノート

my risk management on DXY:
swing trade 1% exposure
add in 0.5%

lost the add in -0.5%
secured 1.38%
leaving me with a total profit of 0.88%

profit floating 1%

moved my main sl to profit

ノート

retesting 50% fib + 1h engulfing

ノート

as i said in my gold analysis,
"Despite GDP data coming in below expectations, i have observed the price being pushed common tactics of manipulation before us open, i anticipate the conclusion of the price manipulation and a return to the dollar's true movement, potentially leading to more favorable outcomes."

and as we can see what happend after the us open,
in the 1h : doji rejecting the 78% fib level
the 30min: bearish engulfing