Weekly outlook: DXY just short it.
The price made a reverse at the upside movement at the 61.8 fibo level of the previous downside move. Now we can formaly said we have the two first big wave of the downside macro structure, that will be formed by a (1) - (5) wave structure.
What to take on considerations:
In the fundamental side:
The uncertainty in the Fed cut rate situation on the coming meeting is created by the higher than expected last week inflation report, as we can see in the 10 years US treasury yield which one move from 2.05 to 2.13, in the same way we can see in the cme fedwatch tool a disminish in the expectation on the market, the 200-225 range Fed cut rate odds go from 95% to 76% . In the coming week many companies such as JP Morgan Microsoft and further more are going to release the earning reports. We must remember that the global market is already affected by $200 billions tariffs and there is a slower global growth so this reports can show us if the US market is already been impacted but does variables, this is important, because it would be another catalist to give reason for the Fed to contemplate cut rates once again.
In the coming week, on tuesday will be released the retail sales on US, Powell already said the Fed is going to watch this data to the Fed cut decision.
In the technical side:
The price respected the 61.8 fibo level of the (1) macro wave, forming the (2) retracement wave, now we can expect more downside movement, the first target is going to be the minimum of the previous downside movement, and the second target would be the 161.8 fibo extension of the (1) macro wave impulse.
What to take on considerations:
In the fundamental side:
The uncertainty in the Fed cut rate situation on the coming meeting is created by the higher than expected last week inflation report, as we can see in the 10 years US treasury yield which one move from 2.05 to 2.13, in the same way we can see in the cme fedwatch tool a disminish in the expectation on the market, the 200-225 range Fed cut rate odds go from 95% to 76% . In the coming week many companies such as JP Morgan Microsoft and further more are going to release the earning reports. We must remember that the global market is already affected by $200 billions tariffs and there is a slower global growth so this reports can show us if the US market is already been impacted but does variables, this is important, because it would be another catalist to give reason for the Fed to contemplate cut rates once again.
In the coming week, on tuesday will be released the retail sales on US, Powell already said the Fed is going to watch this data to the Fed cut decision.
In the technical side:
The price respected the 61.8 fibo level of the (1) macro wave, forming the (2) retracement wave, now we can expect more downside movement, the first target is going to be the minimum of the previous downside movement, and the second target would be the 161.8 fibo extension of the (1) macro wave impulse.
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