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US Dollar Index - 200 Simple Moving Average is the key

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TVC:DXY   米ドルインデックス
29
2016.09.01. Private idea post.
I repost it again as it's very important.
Back to the range picture. On the 24th of July we printed a false breakdown from the range. On the 3rd of May we also broke out. If we break out again this breakout will be an ultimate one when everyone realizes that the FED is not able to hike this year.
The first stop of this decline to lose finally the 200 SMA . As you can see this summer we were turning down from the 200 SMA many times. WE were able to break above this level only once but in a few days we lost this MA again.
I think this daily cycle rally is done here as we tagged the 200 SMA yesterday+ today and as we turn down again price will start to attack the blue trendline. As we break the trendline (94.7) the next stop is at the bottom of the range.
If we break down from the range price will free fall to 87.65 as there is no level to stop it.
If the dollar is falling gold, oil and stocks will rally again.

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