The uptrend continues putting downward pressure on asset values...and the fun is just about to begin...
-Raising rates has long legs.
-It takes a long time from a change in interest rates to soften output and labour markets.
-And it takes longer after that for that to influence wage and price changes.
-You raise rates. Is it enough? Is it enough? You don’t know for a while.
-Labour markets are still strong.
-Consumers feel that the economic situation is very strong & that their jobs are secure.
(That is very important)
1) It is one thing if ppl expect a recession, but expect a neighbor to be affected.
2) But when comes to their own situation, if they fear for their jobs and livelihood, then it sets of a whole different set of reactions, and behaviours, and cut-backs specifically.
September/Fall:
-Interest rates bite even deeper
-Housing market winds up a series of declines
-(And really) the psychology, the negative mood sets in.
And that’s the time we see employers lay some people off, or at the very minimum, hiring much less.
-Raising rates has long legs.
-It takes a long time from a change in interest rates to soften output and labour markets.
-And it takes longer after that for that to influence wage and price changes.
-You raise rates. Is it enough? Is it enough? You don’t know for a while.
-Labour markets are still strong.
-Consumers feel that the economic situation is very strong & that their jobs are secure.
(That is very important)
1) It is one thing if ppl expect a recession, but expect a neighbor to be affected.
2) But when comes to their own situation, if they fear for their jobs and livelihood, then it sets of a whole different set of reactions, and behaviours, and cut-backs specifically.
September/Fall:
-Interest rates bite even deeper
-Housing market winds up a series of declines
-(And really) the psychology, the negative mood sets in.
And that’s the time we see employers lay some people off, or at the very minimum, hiring much less.