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Trends continue to battle within the 4100-4200 range

アップデート済

So with us back at the top of the range bound area we have been in of 4100-4200, the longer term trend of a 6hr has provided a lower high entry point. After getting stopped out from my previous entry point I've gone back in again at 4181.

Being that the 30m/1hr/2hr and now 6hr are calling for a pull back down, and we are not above the funnel range of the 4hr and 3hr, I fully expect things to head back down here soon. We do have a 12hr that can still hit an uptrend, and we are not outside the range of the Daily trend yet which is at 4200.

The index that tracks the top stocks, the NYFANG, is in overbought territory on a Daily timeframe and nearly into overbought territory on a Weekly basis as well. Those stocks have been propping up the market and I think this zone will see at least some retracement on their part as well.

Additionally, the head and shoulders I foresaw being developed reached full maturity with the pump on a medium volume day.

Alas, my 6E trade had gave up some of the profit I'd peaked at yesterday but is now making new lows. We are about .2 away from reaching my target goal there and I'm happy with the $4000 trade that has become. If I need to utilize that profit to subsidize my lack of profit in the S&P this week, I can handle that.

Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4136 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High
1Hr - 4164 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4164 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High
3Hr - 4172 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4180 Uptrend (5/18/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

The Long Position;
The 3hr and 4hr are calling in for support at 4172, so if they manage to stop any downward momentum they could help lift the market to a 12hr uptrend and/or the Daily ascending trendline at 4200.

The Short position;
With the 6hr calling for a reverse, and the lower timeframes heavily violated, I see the 4180 price point as an entry to the downside.

Economic Data;
We've got Philly data including a manufacturing index and the usual jobs data. Don't forget that Powell speaks tomorrow as well since I likely won't be around tomorrow.

Earnings;
Walmart beat their lowered target goal, and have raised the year end target but lowered Q2 expectations. See how they pull this off yet? Now when they beat Q2 lowered expectations, they can keep the year long up and lower Q3... and on and on we go with this fake earnings beats.

My sentiment into today is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Bullish/Neutral

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Philly data came in negative, but not as negative as expected (it isn't the biggest deal).
Jobless claims went DOWN!
Both 4 week average and initial jobless claims.
There is no way we are getting rate cuts.

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And with the open, the NYFANG has just struck overbought on a Weekly basis.

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Profit stopped again.............................................
,,|,, this market lol

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So after getting a 30m downtrend and now a 30m uptrend at 4187 I've gone short at 4189. This will likely be my last attempt on this market, as I think it is beginning to look like it wants to break out of the H&S pattern and make new highs.

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I officially cashed out my 6E trade at 1.079.
Target hit (and a couple hundred extra)

Now for this S&P to behave...

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8 of 11 sectors in the S&P are negative on the day. You'd never guess that as the major tech stocks pull the whole index up higher on overheated stock prices. NYFANG briefly hit up above 3% gain on the day as we head deeply into overbought territory on long term timeframes.

I am treating this as a squeeze before things head down.

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Well, I was profit stopped. Going to take tomorrow off. Definitely one of the worst profit weeks in a while, but I can subsidize with the 6E profit I made.

If a 12hr uptrend had hit I would have tried shorting again, but it didn't, even with this huge late day rally. At this point the other trendline I have is around 4270.

See everyone next week!