6/20: Long Weekend Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
The past week saw an impressive rally, with a 100-point squeeze on Thursday leading to a 190-point rally throughout the week. This marks the fourth week where the Thursday or Friday rally tendency has been tracked. As expected, Friday was OPEX day, leading to a messy, rangebound chop.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Mixed
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Down slightly
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
World Headline
Both sides expressed positive sentiments following US Secretary of State Blinken's China trip and meeting with President Xi. However, Chinese stocks are experiencing a decline due to the PBOC implementing monetary easing measures that were more moderate than anticipated.
Key Structures
Some core big-picture structures and levels to watch include 4430, the most recent breakout level from Thursday; 4400, a stubborn support all last week; 4272-80, the core breakout level from June 1st/2nd; and the large white rising channel structure from the March low, with support now at 4260.
Support Levels
4455-50 (major), 4431 (major), 4421, 4400-05 (major), 4381 (major), 4371 (major), 4356, 4340 (major), 4328, 4317, 4294, 4272-80 (major), 4260 (major)
Resistance Levels
4466 (major), 4477, 4484 (major), 4492, 4503 (major), 4515, 4524 (major), 4535 (major), 4550-55 (major), 4570 (major), 4582, 4590-95 (major)
Trading Plan
The plan for the upcoming week is to remain cautious with longs and focus on failed breakdowns. Key supports to watch today include 4450 and 4431, with 4431 being the most recent breakout point that needs to backtest. In the bull case, defend 4450, perhaps with a quick flush to 4430 at the lowest, and then base build between 4450 and 4484. In the bear case, the failure of 4450 begins the short setup, with a move down to 4430 and potentially deeper if it fails.
Wrap Up
After a strong rally, pullback is not surprising, with a potential dip to 4430 on the spike down. The general lean is for ES to defend these levels and base more under 4484 to set up another push to 4505 and 4524 later in the week. Keep an eye on the key support and resistance levels and adjust the trading plan accordingly.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The past week saw an impressive rally, with a 100-point squeeze on Thursday leading to a 190-point rally throughout the week. This marks the fourth week where the Thursday or Friday rally tendency has been tracked. As expected, Friday was OPEX day, leading to a messy, rangebound chop.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Mixed
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Down slightly
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
World Headline
Both sides expressed positive sentiments following US Secretary of State Blinken's China trip and meeting with President Xi. However, Chinese stocks are experiencing a decline due to the PBOC implementing monetary easing measures that were more moderate than anticipated.
Key Structures
Some core big-picture structures and levels to watch include 4430, the most recent breakout level from Thursday; 4400, a stubborn support all last week; 4272-80, the core breakout level from June 1st/2nd; and the large white rising channel structure from the March low, with support now at 4260.
Support Levels
4455-50 (major), 4431 (major), 4421, 4400-05 (major), 4381 (major), 4371 (major), 4356, 4340 (major), 4328, 4317, 4294, 4272-80 (major), 4260 (major)
Resistance Levels
4466 (major), 4477, 4484 (major), 4492, 4503 (major), 4515, 4524 (major), 4535 (major), 4550-55 (major), 4570 (major), 4582, 4590-95 (major)
Trading Plan
The plan for the upcoming week is to remain cautious with longs and focus on failed breakdowns. Key supports to watch today include 4450 and 4431, with 4431 being the most recent breakout point that needs to backtest. In the bull case, defend 4450, perhaps with a quick flush to 4430 at the lowest, and then base build between 4450 and 4484. In the bear case, the failure of 4450 begins the short setup, with a move down to 4430 and potentially deeper if it fails.
Wrap Up
After a strong rally, pullback is not surprising, with a potential dip to 4430 on the spike down. The general lean is for ES to defend these levels and base more under 4484 to set up another push to 4505 and 4524 later in the week. Keep an eye on the key support and resistance levels and adjust the trading plan accordingly.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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