ES Supply Short Idea

8月15日

Nice recovery for ES and NQ after last Monday's dump. Straight back up, much like April. I think this could be near a major top, or at least a short term pull back for bulls to take a breather. Either way, the setup is solid. This is a really nice supply zone here and NQ has a similar one. I'd expect the first retest to cause at least one rejection.

It got pretty close today but didn't quite touch it. Maybe it hits it overnight and fails or never hits it at all. This is just another short confirmation for the next few months. The supply is right at a major high when ES retested its trend and failed. I think we could easily fail from here or hit supply again first. Doesn't matter much to me, I just want to be short if it stays below and probably long if it breaks above.

8月16日

ノート

So far we had a nice rejection of supply overnight and then again just now intraday. However, it is barely below and isn't a confirmed rejection yet. NQ has a very similar supply zone and it is rejecting as well.

It's critical for ES and NQ to break above these supply zones and hold above. If not I think they would be vulnerable to giving up a lot of the recent gains very quickly. Can't read much into a Friday like this with OPEX and everything else. There's no telling where we open Monday, but I remain bearish. I'm taking an early weekend unless something pops off in the final 2 hours, which is possible, but probably not worth trying to trade anyway.