ES going into CPI

アップデート済

Came back to analyze the ES pre-CPI one more time. I didn't manage to publish this prior to release, as the inflation data just came out as I'm typing this, but looks like CPI came in as expected so no surprises.

Ultimately, we did get a potential buy signal on Monday as I expected. It did come with a bit of a push down. I'm still not sure I want to go Long, especially as the ES contract is running on Z24, which will expire soon. The official expiry is the third Friday of the month, but depending on the broker it may cut you off a few days before that, so there isn't much time to hold that trade and the ESH25 contract coming in is already about 70 points higher than our current position.

I will likely look for entry into 6E or 6C contracts if they dip lower or show good data into entry points for even soft rebounds.

Look for potential disruptions if we get PPI higher than normal that mathematically shows CPE could come in higher than expected. Fed Decision is next week also, which may setup the sentiment going into long term planning of 2025.

Safe trading, and remember your risk management!

トレード稼働中

In the event anyone was curious, I am long 6E with 8 contracts. Went in initially at 1.048 two days ago, which looked great but lost steam. As that contract expired anyways, I cashed it out as it came back down to 1.05 for $1200 (was up 5k overnight). I then was watching the 6EH25 contract while the default was still the 6EZ24, and set in to go in at 1.048 on the 6EH25 last night, which popped around 2am. Currently up around .04 (so $4000).

My initial target is 1.063 again, as there is a gap to fill, although I'm also looking to potentially hold until just above 1.07, depending on how the journey North looks.

The 6E signaled an entry two days ago, but also yesterday were entry signals on the;
6B (British Pound)
6S (Swiss Franc)
6M (Mexican Peso)
SI (Silver)

My assessment is all the monetary ones are because the USD is looking to have a dip in strength, but the Silver is rather interesting, as forecasts call for it to hit much higher into 2025 than it is now, especially with the dip. Would need more research on that one, as I'd likely go with 2 contracts, which is $100 per tick at .005. It is already down again today at around .3 though, so I feel more research and assessment needs to be made on an entry point into the buy signal.

ノート

Sorry, meant I went in at 1.0498, not 1.048... coffee still settling in =)