SPX Headed up for Q2 End to 5000 and Q3/Q4 Expecting -25%

2022年4月12日

Expecting macro bad news to cool off in Q2 but really pressure markets by end of year.

Crypto will not be immune to this. Expecting BTC to retest 30k or 25K min. Ethereum to hit $2000 to $1500. Most Altcoins to be down -50% from ATHs at minimum or -80% in many cases.

2022年4月13日

ノート

Why do I think the above scenario will happen?
1. Heavy fear sold into lows of growth stocks + Crypto
2. Fed rate hikes are expected and market has priced in at least 5-7 hikes at 25bps and a few 50bps intra-meeting hikes
3. Bond market yields are still terrible for investors to even consider, esp. given that inflation is so rampant
4. Games of liquidity: Market selling so heavy into lows, almost always has equal or overshoot reaction in the opposite direction - to the point of irrationality. Liquidity in this case is higher and I'd figure a larger distribution takes place at the highs
5. Russia/Ukraine war issues are "calm" as any large issue like that can be - but again, market priced in a lot of that fear into lows imo. Unless Russia uses nukes or bombs Poland or Germany - this war will be dragged out and be business as usual
6. Un-anticipated event that could throw a wrench is spread of COVID (Shangha/Shenzen issues developing) but the world right now is so over covid - I don't think most Western nations will shut down economy or even care

All in all, the market has almost all bases covered by simply having such a massive sell-off. The caveat will be once the market surprises everyone by going up +15% from here, as stated in image - people will conveniently forget how badly deteriorated the conditions are on a global economy basis, resource issues w/ oil price highs, trade stalls, wheat, fertilizer, LNG constraints etc. This should be the brick wall of sellers in the market and can quite easily create a top.