ETH Bull Trap or Bull Breakout
アップデート済
In my previous analysis i showed to wedges for ETH, as you can see on the left now as well. What i said in my previous analysis:
Now the problem is, it's like in the middle of both scenario's. It didn't really rally above 200 towards 205+, but it also did not get a real rejection yet. The volume inside of the (bigger) wedge is NOT confirming a wedge , when using the smaller one (yellow wedge ), you could maybe say the volume is dropping. Usually, in a situation like this, the longer it takes to drop and instead going sideways, the bigger the chances become for a bullish move. Would say maybe one more day left for the bears.
On the right we can see that triangle and the bull flag that came after it. But the breakout of that bull flag is pretty weak, so could be a sign of bulls loosing momentum and the market might be at it's high. Also see it broke that uptrend line (purple line) and at the moment still testing it as a resistance. For that pattern, it says 197ish is the max for the retest and a break of 192ish COULD mean a acceleration down. If that doesn't happen after a break of 192, it could mean that sideways movement after a wedge break, which usually results in like a bear trap and see another move.
So would say, if 192ish breaks, for the bearish wedge to be in play, it needs to dump big and high volume , where i think 186ish is the key level. So think a break of 186, could mean a trend change, anything above it could all just be noise/consolidation. It is also likely to say, that if it is all a bear trap, we should see a counter move. With that i mean, that we should see a big rally, a move to like 215/225. If that would happen, there is a serious chance that the market low is really set and we simply continue the bull trend. Anything weaker, still puts bulls in favor, but then we could still see a big/decent correction at some point. Remember the bearish wedge i posted on Bitcoin few months ago? Broke up but never accelerated and eventually market dumped big time. Similar situation now i would say.
The 192 broke, but only barely and only with a wick, since then it just went sideways and kept bumping against the 198 resistance. So eventually as mentioned above, it was taking too long from the bears side and bulls were accumulating. However, the big question now is, where they accumulation for an exit scam, to trigger stops above 205/210 to be able to close all the longs (or fill up short), or was it a real rally and the start of a bull trend.
Now, the first correction yesterday, tells me, it dropped too much and good chance it was all a stop hunt move. You can also see how high the sell volume was yesterday. Normally you rather want to see high volume on the way up and dropping volume during the correction. Think it also should have stayed above the 207/210. But so far all still premature though. The chart above is what i posted in my channel yesterday, where i added the red and green line for this analysis.
The red line suggest a normal retest and we could pump again, but i think that might be the trap version. So the more times we touch prices at 205 and below, the bigger the chances become for a Bull trap. If we would even see a big/fast and high volume drop below the 190ish, it would confirm the whole rally is/was a bull trap and we could then easily drop to 150 or even lower (but no use getting ahead of things).
The green line says, another retest is allowed, but then at some point (not taking too much time), it has to bounce up strong again where it might see some resistance again around the 220, but that is the KEY level that has to break coming days for the bull trend to continue. Today we saw a move into the neutral zone, broke the 215ish resistance but it was a fake breakout. Think at the moment it's important even for the bulls to hold the green zone and form a higher low. Because if that breaks, it could enter the danger zone again (the big red zone on the left).
So think in short, for the mid-term (coming week or so), the 220 and 200 are the levels, in between is like neutral zone for the chart on the left. For the chart on the right, it shows already. For the longer term, think 190 is a key zone for the bulls.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Now the problem is, it's like in the middle of both scenario's. It didn't really rally above 200 towards 205+, but it also did not get a real rejection yet. The volume inside of the (bigger) wedge is NOT confirming a wedge , when using the smaller one (yellow wedge ), you could maybe say the volume is dropping. Usually, in a situation like this, the longer it takes to drop and instead going sideways, the bigger the chances become for a bullish move. Would say maybe one more day left for the bears.
On the right we can see that triangle and the bull flag that came after it. But the breakout of that bull flag is pretty weak, so could be a sign of bulls loosing momentum and the market might be at it's high. Also see it broke that uptrend line (purple line) and at the moment still testing it as a resistance. For that pattern, it says 197ish is the max for the retest and a break of 192ish COULD mean a acceleration down. If that doesn't happen after a break of 192, it could mean that sideways movement after a wedge break, which usually results in like a bear trap and see another move.
So would say, if 192ish breaks, for the bearish wedge to be in play, it needs to dump big and high volume , where i think 186ish is the key level. So think a break of 186, could mean a trend change, anything above it could all just be noise/consolidation. It is also likely to say, that if it is all a bear trap, we should see a counter move. With that i mean, that we should see a big rally, a move to like 215/225. If that would happen, there is a serious chance that the market low is really set and we simply continue the bull trend. Anything weaker, still puts bulls in favor, but then we could still see a big/decent correction at some point. Remember the bearish wedge i posted on Bitcoin few months ago? Broke up but never accelerated and eventually market dumped big time. Similar situation now i would say.
The 192 broke, but only barely and only with a wick, since then it just went sideways and kept bumping against the 198 resistance. So eventually as mentioned above, it was taking too long from the bears side and bulls were accumulating. However, the big question now is, where they accumulation for an exit scam, to trigger stops above 205/210 to be able to close all the longs (or fill up short), or was it a real rally and the start of a bull trend.
Now, the first correction yesterday, tells me, it dropped too much and good chance it was all a stop hunt move. You can also see how high the sell volume was yesterday. Normally you rather want to see high volume on the way up and dropping volume during the correction. Think it also should have stayed above the 207/210. But so far all still premature though. The chart above is what i posted in my channel yesterday, where i added the red and green line for this analysis.
The red line suggest a normal retest and we could pump again, but i think that might be the trap version. So the more times we touch prices at 205 and below, the bigger the chances become for a Bull trap. If we would even see a big/fast and high volume drop below the 190ish, it would confirm the whole rally is/was a bull trap and we could then easily drop to 150 or even lower (but no use getting ahead of things).
The green line says, another retest is allowed, but then at some point (not taking too much time), it has to bounce up strong again where it might see some resistance again around the 220, but that is the KEY level that has to break coming days for the bull trend to continue. Today we saw a move into the neutral zone, broke the 215ish resistance but it was a fake breakout. Think at the moment it's important even for the bulls to hold the green zone and form a higher low. Because if that breaks, it could enter the danger zone again (the big red zone on the left).
So think in short, for the mid-term (coming week or so), the 220 and 200 are the levels, in between is like neutral zone for the chart on the left. For the chart on the right, it shows already. For the longer term, think 190 is a key zone for the bulls.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
ノート
Quite the rejection again from the 220 level, so think safe to say that 218/220 is a BIG level for ETH bulls. For now, it seems as if the red line on the left is playing out. Made a low inside the green zone (what i said should not happen for the bulls), so things are slightly in favor of the bears now. A retest of like 208 is still possible, if it would get above the 210, i think my red line scenario is probably wrong. On the right, looks like a possible channel, if that breaks, could see a retest of the 208. You need to draw it yourself, was/am in a hurry myself and it's not drawn very well as you can see :)
ノート
Following the blue line so far, but must say, it's bouncing up stronger than i thought it would, so not sure if the red line scenario is in play here. I have drawn a resistance line on the right now as well, which could also still reject the price. Now if the 208/10 breaks, doesn't mean it's all bullish, i see it more neutral then up to like 215. The real level is 220ish, but good chance that if it crosses 215/16, that bulls will do another attempt and that it might break the third time.ノート
As posted in my Bitcoin analysis hour ago, alts really fell behind on Bitcoin, price went just above the 210ish, but once again it was just a stop hunt (something ETH does a lot. For now i would say, it needs to get above 206/7, otherwise the red line from the left is in play
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