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Ethereum to $2k

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This is going to be unpopular. You will be triggered! I’m only stating the facts of the chart. This is not my opinion.

Let’s begin..

The whole of tradingview is bullish on Ethereum. It seems everyone is talking about 5k, 10k, 20k Ethereum by teatime. Youtubers are not much better. Everyone is bullish.

I couldn’t be more bearish. What I’m seeing?

The above weekly dollar chart is incredibly bearish. Why?

1) ‘Incredible sell’ signal is printed back in March. Since then higher highs in price, lower highs in RSI.

2) Bearish engulfing candle. The first Bearish engulfing candle above 50-day and 200-day SMA ever in the history of Ethereum price action. Think about that for a moment.

3) Regular bearish divergence. The lower highs in RSI versus the higher highs in price action. Currently there is 5 weekly oscillators printing bearish divergence with price action (circled in purple). Look left! It has never been good.

4) The monthly chart (bottom), now prints RSI support as resistance with Stochastic RSI crossing down 80 (red area). Look left.

Looking left, on each occasion divergence was this significant there was a least a 50% correction in price action, on one occasion 80%.

The Ethereum/Bitcoin chart

1) On the 3-day chart (below) a ‘incredible sell’ signal was printed following a 370% appreciation in price action from the ‘incredible buy’ signal back in August / September 2019.

2) Much of trading-view is talking about the ascending triangle formation. Sure it can be sketched a number of different ways. What matters most is confluence, i.e. the more touch points a trend line has the more significant it is. That is already evident in the dollar chart above. We can see price action has broken out from support and is now back testing that support as resistance. If confirmed there’ll be an almighty collapse.

3) Bearish engulfing candles. These candles are set to print only if above the 50-day and 200-day SMA (we’re not interested below those SMAs). There is 5 Bearish engulfing candles currently printing. On a 3-day chart!

Is it possible price action moves higher? For sure.

Is it probable? Hell no.

A sell from 5k is amazing but risky.

Good luck!

WW

Ethereum / Bitcoin 3-day chart

The monthly chart - RSI support has become resistance:

ノート

A lot of PM’s telling me I’m mad! Not unexpected. I don’t publish these big bearish ideas on a whim, it has been hours of study. And best part is… you’re getting for free.

As I replied to another below:

Believe it or not that target is me being conservative. The scope for a lower move is fully possible. I'm thinking 1.3k, but I did not want to completely frighten people!

Look what is happening to the network:

1) The number of Ethereum Nodes operating on the network has halved since August. This is not a growing network. This is contraction.

Sats right here: ethernodes.org/history

2) Latterly the exchange inflow of Ethereum has doubled. There’s a pattern here…

3) Both 1 and 2 are occurring whilst price action is increasing. The ultimate bearish divergence.

Those nodes that are closing are releasing vast quantities of once locked up Ethereum. The signs are all there.

On the chart below You can see the increase in exchange deposits up until May this year, right before price action dropped from to 1.8k.

The exchange deposits are increasing again except this time even more so than in May.

Perhaps this time is different.

トレード稼働中

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On this idea, it will become void with price action above 5k. In that scenario price action will be in price discovery mode with a potential target of $12-15k until resistance representing a 150% or 2-3x from current levels. Given the risk, not really worth getting out of bed for.

トレード稼働中

2nd Bearish engulfing candle printing on the weekly with the RSI @ 70 confirming resistance. Not great not terrible.

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On the 10-day chart below price action on Ethereum continues to become increasingly bearish. Two developments:

1) Price action breaks through support (purple circle). If this is to be reversed price action MUST close above 5.5k by December 20th.

2) RSI support fails following a series of lower highs with higher highs in price action.

This chart on this scale is ridiculously bearish.

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Price action breaks the 2-day / 50-day EMA (blue line). 30%, 40%, and 90% corrections occurred on the last 3 events price action broke this EMA. Will this time be different?

If this time is to be different price action must close above before the end of the month.

トレード稼働中

** Target update ** now $1200

Don't recall the last time I saw a 'incredible sell' alert on a monthly chart, but we have one. Furthermore the regular bearish divergence is massive. A divergence on this time frame is indicative of a significant correction for at least the next 3 to 6 months.

Wait until it's over... be patient.

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** Ethereum dominance fake out. **

I know a lot of folks have been talking about Ethereum dominance breaking out and upward, possibly even knocking Bitcoin off no. 1 position. This 10-day chart on Ethereum dominance tells you why that's not going to happen.

On the 10-day ETH.D chart below dominance broke resistance and returned to earth printing a fake out. More alarmingly dominance has just broken through previous support following a higher high in dominance and a lower high in RSI.

This is 100% not the time to be bullish on Ethereum.

トレード稼働中

Down 40% so far... the number bullish ideas floating around Youtube and Tradingview is crazy. Price action on the 2-day chart is projected to print a 2-day death cross by the end of March.

The last 2-day death cross saw an additional 80% correction - will this time be different?

Watch $1400 level is 2k fails to act as support. If $1400 fails, then look out for $770.

トレード稼働中

** 5-day death cross prints **

Couple of things here:

1) The 5-day death cross prints. Look left (purple circles), draw downs in the past with this cross over have been brutal.

2) The head and shoulders pattern currently printing, look carefully for a break of the neck line.

トレード稼働中

Death cross just printed on the weekly, don't be long like so many tradingview ideas are suggesting... look left

トレード稼働中

** target update, $900 **

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Unlike other alt-tokens Ethereum appears to be following bitcoin price action day by day with fail.

The bear flag now, just like Bitcoin price action, appears to be printing a breakout.

Target remains valid until trend change.