Decisive moment for crypto

2020年10月21日

It's weird. ETH chart shows a bearish setup while BTC chart looks willing to bust above 12k. I'm currently in an underwater short that I could close but my intuition tells me price is going way lower for the moment. The brief hope to cross 12k I think was created by whales manipulating the market, as proven by the previous million-dollar sell walls that drove ETH to 330ish.

In my limited experience I feel price is wanting to bust above 12K but whales are still trying to accumulate more coins before the rally. I deduct this from the fact that whenever the price stalls and volume is minimal, price naturally follows an upward movement. Whenever a 50 ETH sell wall appears you know something is up. At times, ETH is leading BTC, at other times BTC takes the lead, and a few occasions other coins move BTC and ETH. XRP recently dominated the market movement for a brief moment. If you switch aroudn between ETH, BTC and XRP charts you'll notice when one coin is pulling or pushing the market. At times, ETH seems to be ready for a breakout, but suddenly BTC dumps and ETH's price structure completely breaks down. Food for thought.

If my underwater short busts I will close at a 20% loss unfortunately.

Key levels are highlighted in yellow. I see two scenarios here. If BTC busts above 12K with strength then we're going to see new all time highs probably in the range of 20k. If it busts below 12K, I feel ETH might see even lower levels seeing how its structure is very different than BTC's. BTC is dying to break above 12K, while ETH's price structure looks like it's dying to break down to 330 or below.

I do foresee a possible flippening where BTC breaks out of 12K and ETH busts further below before mooning, much like 2017. It has been three years of a bear market and finally the charts are showing bullsih behavior.

I do think we are going to see all time highs in the range of 20k and above for BTC this year, I am however doubtful it will happen this month.

An extra idea: Since the YFI craze, ETH has been behaving differently compared to the BTC chart. I think, given all the transactions going on in this ETH-based YFI networks, that ETH is getting similar volume than Bitcoin lately. I think that could explain the difference in chart structure between the two coins. XRP will soon launch its bridge coin, Flare or Spark or whatever, on December 14 to create a bridge between XRP and ETH smart contracts. Overall, I think this will push the value of ETH and XRP higher than BTC (relatively, not in real price) in the future. Only because XRP's transfer fees and transfer times are neglibile, and it's the top 3 coin overall. Add to this, the upcoming ETH 2.0 upgrade and I think ETH will become top 1 coin for at least a while.

It's hard to think price might move higher after seeing such a burst from BTC in the past weeks. However, I do think, if price is to move higher than 12K, we must see another low before moving past this resistance. Elliot Wave suggest the price has completed it's 5th wave @ 12600ish for BTC, so my intuition says we will see more lows in the short-medium term before the end of 2020.

If ETH breaks above 486 it´s all f*ed for my trade at 20x. However, i feel that is unlikely.

For now, I have my ideas highlighted in this chart. Constructive criticism is more than welcome. My ass is on the line here. I have the last of my holdings in this short I showcase in my chart, hoping my intuition is correct. If BTC breaks above 12K, I'm screwed and I basically lost a chunk of my holdings. However, if ETH breaks below the key levels highlighted in yellow, I might very well live to enjoy another week. cheers. special mention to HaraldoXRP, the mage