ETH and upcoming Constantinople Hard Fork on Jan 16

2018年12月29日

Project Metropolis for ETH
Stage 1 - Byzantium - Oct 16, 2017
Stage 2 - Constantinople - Jan 16, 2019

Previous action during stage 1 upgrade
On Oct 12, 2017, ETH had a price spike from $302 -> $346, with a significant increase in volume starting around 20:00 (UTC -8:00), and with the peak around 11:00 the following day, roughly a 15hr time frame. 24hr volume nearly tripled during this same period. The higher price levels held steady until Oct 15, around 22:00 when a strong selloff occurred, right before the Byzantium upgrade was performed. By the end of the sell off, the price had dropped past previous support levels to $291 by Oct 19, and $218 by Oct 23. Keep in mind this was during a strong bull market.

Recap of previous action during stage 1 upgrade
Oct 12: $302 -> $346 (+13%)
Oct 15-18: $340 -> $291 (-14%)

News
On Jan 16, developers have agreed to hard fork Ethereum. This is the second stage for Metropolis, with the goal to help Ethereum network to be more efficient, quicker, and less expensive.

Potentional price action
Can we expect similar action as we approach the upcoming Byzantium upgrade? It's a bit early to tell, but it's important to watch more closely as the date nears. If volume starts increasing, we could see a significant 10-15% price increase, and rapid selloff just before the upgrade occurs.

Currently we had a price breakout following a falling wedge (blue), as bears ran out of strength near the previous support levels around $112. You'll notice the candles got small right before the upward breakout. The breakout pushed the price all the way up to $140. A new upward trend (purple) could be forming. Moving forward, it's important to watch the price action near the lower trend line (purple), and the next line of resistance (red). If the lower trend line holds, and the line of resistance is broken, then we might see a solid upswing approaching Constantinople. Overall, I like the current the price action and I'm feeling bullish as Constantinople approaches.

Keep in mind overall market is bearish right now. But we are heading into the new year, a time when sentiment is generally positive and people are feeling good.