ICmarkets

EUR/GBP: Technical outlook and review.

FX:EURGBP   ユーロ/ポンド
0
4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly TF: Current trading action is taking place around a weekly decision-point area at 0.80328-0.79780; a break above here could very well indicate buying strength from around the weekly demand area below at 0.79631-0.78623.
• Daily TF: Price is currently seen trading around a daily S/R flip level support at 0.79751, if active buy orders are sitting here, we could be seeing a small rally towards daily supply above at 0.80328-0.80024; a break below could very well push prices south towards the daily demand area at 0.78862-0.79206.

It was reported in the last analysis that we may see a sell off this week. The market opened at 0.79885, and ever since then, the sellers have been extremely active pushing price down to a 4hr demand area at 0.79615-0.79704. This sell off could be one of two things, or even both! It could be traders closing their positions after last week’s rally higher, and considering we are near such a big round number 0.8, it only adds to the psychology to sell any long positions. It could also be serious pro money at work here, selling price hard to the downside, confusing the hell out of other traders wondering why we have not touched the round number above. The small pink box drawn formed at 0.79958-0.79909 is there to resemble what looks like a ‘dummy’ supply area. Pro money know traders will be selling there with their stops either just above the area of the round number above, once pro money breaks this area north, and into the round number, they will have plenty of buy orders to sell into (from the traders they’ve stopped out). Take a look above the round number; see that awesome-looking 4hr supply area at 0.80264-0.80133? This could well be the final destination for pro money to organize a sell off, think of the buy orders pro money will accumulate (to sell into as liquidity) from stopping out traders attempting to fade and breakout buyers forever willing to hand over their buy orders!!

So from here we are going to be watching how price reacts around the aforementioned ‘dummy’ 4hr supply area, the round number 0.8, and finally the 4hr supply area at 0.80264-0.80133 above at for a bearish reaction. Taking all the above into consideration, another thing to think about is that these levels are very near, some even within daily supply at 0.80328-0.80024., and also weekly supply at 0.80328-0.79780!

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (0.78602-0.78320) at 0.78641. The reasoning behind setting a pending buy order here is due to its current location on the higher timeframes. This 4hr demand area is just above daily demand at 0.78117-0.78533 and also just within the upper area of weekly demand at 0.76931-0.78623.
• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above 4hr demand (0.79232-0.79361) at 0.79378. A pending buy order was set here since this area is fresh, and could at the very least see a bounce when, or indeed if price returns here.
• The P.A confirmation buy order (Red line) set just above a 4hr decision-point area (0.79615-0.79704) at 0.79728 is now active. Buyers will have to confirm this area by consuming some or most of the sellers around the round number 0.8 above, without hitting the 4hr supply area above at 0.80264-0.80133, we will then consider setting a pending buy order awaiting a possible return.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a supply area (0.80264-0.80133) at 0.80110 as this area is beautifully located within daily supply at 0.80328-0.80024, and also deep within a weekly decision-point area at 0.80328-0.79780, and not to mention the round number 0.8 is begging to be faked up into the aforementioned 4hr supply area, think of all that liquidity for pro money!!
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.




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