EURNZD – A Short at the Edge: Counter-Trend Setup Brewing

EURNZD – A Short at the Edge: Counter-Trend Setup Brewing ⚠️

When the crowd rushes one way, sometimes the edge is found in going the other. EURNZD has been marching higher, but momentum is stalling — and we’re now seeing cracks at resistance. It’s a counter-trend idea, no doubt, but the setup is clean, the risk is tight, and the timing may be right.

📉 I’m bearish on EURNZD — looking to short from overbought levels at resistance.

Here’s why I’m watching this:
🔹 Price is extended and showing signs of exhaustion on the 4H chart
🔹 Both EUR and NZD are fundamentally weak — this rally is not supported by strong divergence
🔹 Sell signals are emerging from price action near key resistance ⚒️
🔹 Sentiment on NZD has recently turned bullish 📈
🔹 The EUR remains inflated after a 17% run since February — overbought conditions ripe for mean reversion 🔄

Let’s zoom in 🔍
The Euro’s strength is largely speculative and now front-loaded — boosted by the confirmation of a US-EU trade deal 🤝 and hopes that the ECB may pause further cuts 🧊. But the underlying data tells another story: sluggish growth 📉, weak consumption 🛒, and a fragile macro backdrop ⚠️.

Meanwhile, the Kiwi is quietly gaining ground 🥝. Business confidence just hit an 11-year high 🚀, inflation is stabilizing, and the RBNZ is signaling a pause 🧭 after aggressive easing — suggesting the worst may be behind.

Yes, the long-term trend is up 📊 — but this is a short-term idea. Markets are overstretched, price action confirms hesitation ⚖️, and there’s room to fade this move before the next leg is decided.

🤔 Would you take this short? Or do you think momentum carries it higher still? Let’s hear it.