EUR/NZD

5月28日

Bullish divergence is a concept used in technical analysis to identify potential buying opportunities in the financial markets. It occurs when the price of an asset is making lower lows, but an indicator (often a momentum oscillator like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), or stochastic oscillator) is making higher lows. This divergence suggests that the downward momentum is weakening, which could be an early sign of a reversal to the upside.

Here's a step-by-step explanation of how to identify and interpret bullish divergence:

Identifying Bullish Divergence

1. **Price Action**: Look at the price chart of the asset and identify two or more consecutive lower lows. This indicates that the price is in a downtrend.

2. **Indicator**: Choose a momentum indicator like RSI, MACD, or stochastic oscillator. Plot this indicator on the chart below the price action.

3. **Compare Lows**: Observe the indicator values corresponding to the price lows. If the indicator is making higher lows while the price is making lower lows, this is a bullish divergence.
Interpretation

- **Weakening Bearish Momentum**: The higher lows in the indicator suggest that the bearish momentum is weakening even though the price is still falling. This can be an early sign that the downtrend may be losing steam.

- **Potential Reversal**: Bullish divergence often precedes a reversal or a significant upward movement in price. Traders use this as a signal to prepare for a potential buying opportunity.

Example

Consider a stock whose price has fallen from $50 to $40, making lower lows. At the same time, the RSI might have fallen from 30 to 25 initially but then risen to 28 on the next lower price low. This higher low in the RSI, coupled with a lower low in the price, forms a bullish divergence.

### Confirmation

- **Volume**: Look for an increase in trading volume during the divergence as this can confirm the potential reversal.
- **Support Levels**: Check if the price is approaching a known support level, which can strengthen the bullish signal.
- **Candlestick Patterns**: Look for bullish candlestick patterns like hammer, engulfing, or doji near the divergence point for additional confirmation.

Example Chart

To visually illustrate a bullish divergence:

1. **Price Chart**: Plot the asset’s price showing lower lows.
2. **Indicator Chart**: Below the price chart, plot the RSI (or any chosen momentum indicator) showing higher lows.
3. **Highlight Divergence**: Draw lines on both charts to connect the respective lows and highlight the divergence.

Practical Tips

- **Use Multiple Timeframes**: Confirm the divergence on multiple timeframes to strengthen the validity of the signal.
- **Risk Management**: Always use stop-loss orders to manage risk as divergences can sometimes fail, and prices can continue in the original trend direction.
- **Combine with Other Indicators**: Use bullish divergence in conjunction with other technical indicators and analysis methods to increase the accuracy of your trades.

Understanding and identifying bullish divergence can be a valuable tool in a trader's toolkit, helping to spot potential buying opportunities in the market.