EUR/USD moves near 55-, 100-hour SMAs

2017年10月5日

Morning outlook - EUR/USD moves near 55-, 100-hour SMAs

In general, the pair continued to move horizontally between the 200-day SMA and the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, as expected. Unfortunately, none of the yesterday’s events caused any significant volatility in the markets.

From technical perspective, it seems that movement of the pair was mainly constrained by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs that helped to form a minor ascending channel, which is lying perpendicularly to larger descending channel.

In the first half of the day, the rate is expected to try to break through the upper trend line of the above pattern, which is backed up by the 200-hour SMA. If a rebound from the retracement level meant the beginning of a new medium-term uptrend, then the pair should eventually bypass this resistance. Otherwise, a rebound is going to follow, in accordance with the current downtrend.

2017年10月6日

ノート

EUR/USD rebounds from 200-hour SMA

In result of the previous trading session, the currency exchange rate made a rebound from a combined resistance set up by the 200-hour SMA and the upper edge of a junior descending channel. In addition to that, the pair managed to break through the 100% Fibonacci retracement level and the weekly S1 again.

On the one hand, this plunge shows that movement of the rate is still guided by a downtrend formed approximately a month ago. On the other hand, a daily chart indicates that the pair is about to reach the lower support line of a dominant falling wedge pattern.

There is a need to take into account that this boundary is additionally secured by the monthly S1 at 1.15658 plus the pair is moving within the long-term uptrend. Hence, the further surge is likely to follow.