BEARS may have come out of HIBERNATION !
アップデート済
Really not being too helpful with this pair to go against the trend because USD is still a safe haven in times of geopolitical stress.
Fundamental Reasons for having the SHORT BIAS
EUROPE:
1. Eurozone GDP growth rate has been contracted to 1.1 percent from 4% while US GDP growth has rate has increased to 2.3% from 2.1%
2. German PMI has shown some signs of improvement but it would be too early to call the change in sentiment because apart from economic numbers, EUROZONE is still prone to geopolitical news like TRADE WAR which is still a matter to consider.
3. US ISM numbers were too good and it peaked above 50 after nearly 6 months. So, it can be anticipated that better numbers can come ahead. Hence, we can still load up dollars here and that's why we have also seen long USD positions building up via CFTC data.
4. Interest rate differentials between FED and ECB will still prefer USD buying from the carry trade perspective and cheaper Euro is considered to be a funding currency in times of equity correction.
5. Apart from Interest rate differentials, better economic numbers will also give a lift to US GDP and Inflation that can give FED a reason to lever up tightening in the coming months.
Only considering a few major economic data from a fundamental point of view.
Technical Reasons
1. EU is forming a clear bear flag with a perfect measurement of AB = CD where the current bear leg has a possibility to close the gap that was created post-Frech Presidential Election in April 2017.
2. Also, the volume has peaked which also indicates a short position has been built. Hence, a short from the pullback of this trend would reap a good reward than trying to catch the bottom.
Fundamental Reasons for having the SHORT BIAS
EUROPE:
1. Eurozone GDP growth rate has been contracted to 1.1 percent from 4% while US GDP growth has rate has increased to 2.3% from 2.1%
2. German PMI has shown some signs of improvement but it would be too early to call the change in sentiment because apart from economic numbers, EUROZONE is still prone to geopolitical news like TRADE WAR which is still a matter to consider.
3. US ISM numbers were too good and it peaked above 50 after nearly 6 months. So, it can be anticipated that better numbers can come ahead. Hence, we can still load up dollars here and that's why we have also seen long USD positions building up via CFTC data.
4. Interest rate differentials between FED and ECB will still prefer USD buying from the carry trade perspective and cheaper Euro is considered to be a funding currency in times of equity correction.
5. Apart from Interest rate differentials, better economic numbers will also give a lift to US GDP and Inflation that can give FED a reason to lever up tightening in the coming months.
Only considering a few major economic data from a fundamental point of view.
Technical Reasons
1. EU is forming a clear bear flag with a perfect measurement of AB = CD where the current bear leg has a possibility to close the gap that was created post-Frech Presidential Election in April 2017.
2. Also, the volume has peaked which also indicates a short position has been built. Hence, a short from the pullback of this trend would reap a good reward than trying to catch the bottom.
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