Correlation exists - a look back G8 forex market (analysts only)
We're still in the storm week so I'd like to make some updates slowly.
First of all, in case you guys have bias and some people will be scary out of pee by the shocks from those different points of view.
1, The G8 forex market is a designed market from mathematic model, which is acting like a peace maker for both sides of the Atlantic Sea where USA and EU zone will NOT have wars forever (a hard lesson from WWII) as long as the trading is carrying on.
2, Source from Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index
The DXY is weighted by: Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight, Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight, Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight, Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight, Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight, Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight. Because of Euro is the most weighted in the model then it's mathematic against the US dollar.
3, Many of you may have questions here, is that the USA against the EU zone by currency war? The answers's NO. Look, the most matters isn't the Euro vs. the US dollar but the DAX and SPX500. In fact, the EURUSD could drop lower from mathematic model only if the DAX and the SPX500 rising forever.
stay tuned ......
First of all, in case you guys have bias and some people will be scary out of pee by the shocks from those different points of view.
1, The G8 forex market is a designed market from mathematic model, which is acting like a peace maker for both sides of the Atlantic Sea where USA and EU zone will NOT have wars forever (a hard lesson from WWII) as long as the trading is carrying on.
2, Source from Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index
The DXY is weighted by: Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight, Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight, Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight, Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight, Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight, Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight. Because of Euro is the most weighted in the model then it's mathematic against the US dollar.
3, Many of you may have questions here, is that the USA against the EU zone by currency war? The answers's NO. Look, the most matters isn't the Euro vs. the US dollar but the DAX and SPX500. In fact, the EURUSD could drop lower from mathematic model only if the DAX and the SPX500 rising forever.
stay tuned ......
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I suggest scalpers and short time frame traders ignoring the correlations unless you're familiar to them. And trading the correlations has huge risk too. Basically it's non tradable but for analysis only.
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After the France election the EU zone is keeping together for now. The Euro dolllar survived it. This fact changed our perspective for EURUSD in a near future. The correlations are changing from Renminbi's pegging with US. Dollar. I will update this chart. New futures may shock the markets from EU revenges but not with our new analysis.
Stay tuned.......
Stay tuned.......
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First of all, I want to say thanks to the ECB for helping the market, thanks to the FRB for helping extending the overheat phase, specially thanks to U.K. people you are excellent! thanks to President Trump for helping Chinese people with Renminbi.
Last year, when I registered my virtual machine software Parallels Desktop 12 for Mac on November 13, 2016, I received a paid bill from third party which was using Euro dollar as the funding currency. I suddenly realized at that moment and asked myself "this is really happening?"
What's happening is a funding currency switching, also a measuring currency switching, or some rumors called it Euro Yen-nizing...
Last year, when I registered my virtual machine software Parallels Desktop 12 for Mac on November 13, 2016, I received a paid bill from third party which was using Euro dollar as the funding currency. I suddenly realized at that moment and asked myself "this is really happening?"
What's happening is a funding currency switching, also a measuring currency switching, or some rumors called it Euro Yen-nizing...
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This is why I must keep humble, I published it one year ago.
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This was published on 6th. March 2016.
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You guys already know that the EURUSD ratio doesn't matter right? The most important thing is SPX500 and DAX rising together as "the single market", all kind of money policy trick is serving the stock market and the inflation. We could see the XAUUSD from 1985 "the square deal" the US dollar is working as a "funding currency" which is serving for interbanks financial currency and also a measuring currency for weighting the gold as inflation control. it was changing on the 2nd. Feb. 2015.
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An good example of commodity currency OZ, XAUUSD, XAUEUR. XAUUSD and XAUEUR are sharing the same inflation, right?
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There's no currency war in the G8 forex market.
Now we're focus on President Trump the US infrastructure rebuilding plan and TAX cut plan and very long term US government bonds purchasing. Those plans should close the production out put gap. "Inflation lags growth, starting to rise only once spare capacity has been used up" M.L.
I think the China leaders are cowards, something must be wrong in China system. The only right thing to do now is following USA.
Now we're focus on President Trump the US infrastructure rebuilding plan and TAX cut plan and very long term US government bonds purchasing. Those plans should close the production out put gap. "Inflation lags growth, starting to rise only once spare capacity has been used up" M.L.
I think the China leaders are cowards, something must be wrong in China system. The only right thing to do now is following USA.
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EURJPY correlations from this chart the Weighted JPY has another leg higher.
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Normally we have only 20 months overheat phase but this cycle could extend into 40 months cycle by 2015 to 2017 Renminbi's finishing extended 20 months already.
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The DAX and SPX500 and A shares are the same market where is called risk appetite. If weighted YEN is forming the second leg then the DAX could drop from buying rising to buying dropping in negative interests condition. In the May I suggest avoiding trading stocks or just flat. If we have A shares drop to the historical low then DAX and SPX500 will follow it sooner. I told you guys it's the same market which connected by YEN.
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Some mathematics here:
1, We try to make Euro dollar switch to US dollar, Euro liquidizing and US dollar tightening with interests going higher, as the normalizing.
EURUSD = EUR/USD= EUR^(interests of the ECB) / USD^(interests of the FRB)
We put interests of the ECB= -1, put interests of the FRB= +1
We have EURUSD = EUR/USD = EUR^(-1)/USD^(+1)= USD/EUR
solution: EURUSD = USDEUR.
Apearently, Euro dollar was inverted from US dollar. Because of Euro dollar is very lack of circulation, we're expecting the ECB flush the market with huge money base expanding. The US dollar is turning to assets. Good for Japanese people and Chinese people are holding it.
2, The inflation cycles:
Renminbi=2013+12+40=2013+52=2013+48+4=2017 April, now we shall have a 20 months pegging with US dollar and a little weaker, USDCNY has some upper space but limited.
US dollar=2015+8+20=2015+28=2015+24+4=2017 April, the first cycle with Renminbi,
US dollar= 2015+12+40=2015+52=2015+48+4=2018+4, the second cycle with the hike,
Japanese YEN: 2014+12+20=2014+32=2014+24+8=2016 August, where Brexit risk off, the first cycle.
Japanese YEN: 2014+12+40=2014+52=2014+48+4=2018 April, where the Japan inflation top, the second 20 months cycle extending.
The YEN topping cycle could last more months with the indexes topping cycle.
1, We try to make Euro dollar switch to US dollar, Euro liquidizing and US dollar tightening with interests going higher, as the normalizing.
EURUSD = EUR/USD= EUR^(interests of the ECB) / USD^(interests of the FRB)
We put interests of the ECB= -1, put interests of the FRB= +1
We have EURUSD = EUR/USD = EUR^(-1)/USD^(+1)= USD/EUR
solution: EURUSD = USDEUR.
Apearently, Euro dollar was inverted from US dollar. Because of Euro dollar is very lack of circulation, we're expecting the ECB flush the market with huge money base expanding. The US dollar is turning to assets. Good for Japanese people and Chinese people are holding it.
2, The inflation cycles:
Renminbi=2013+12+40=2013+52=2013+48+4=2017 April, now we shall have a 20 months pegging with US dollar and a little weaker, USDCNY has some upper space but limited.
US dollar=2015+8+20=2015+28=2015+24+4=2017 April, the first cycle with Renminbi,
US dollar= 2015+12+40=2015+52=2015+48+4=2018+4, the second cycle with the hike,
Japanese YEN: 2014+12+20=2014+32=2014+24+8=2016 August, where Brexit risk off, the first cycle.
Japanese YEN: 2014+12+40=2014+52=2014+48+4=2018 April, where the Japan inflation top, the second 20 months cycle extending.
The YEN topping cycle could last more months with the indexes topping cycle.
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correction in 2: "US dollar= 2015+12+40=2015+52=2015+48+4=2019 April the second cycle with more hikes"
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This is NOT a trading signals ok?
This is for analysts researching only. If scalpers trade it then the risks could be huge and could blow you account many times...
We're unsure where the Euro dollar money policy could change. The EURUSD could be still going higher ok? It'll depend on Renminbi solution from US-China trading deal result. The pegging or rising independently or weaker cowards.
This is for analysts researching only. If scalpers trade it then the risks could be huge and could blow you account many times...
We're unsure where the Euro dollar money policy could change. The EURUSD could be still going higher ok? It'll depend on Renminbi solution from US-China trading deal result. The pegging or rising independently or weaker cowards.
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Simulation mathematic the UJ and XAU inflations.
If EUR/JPY=94 and if EUR/USD=0.94, then
We have UJ = 94/0.94=100, home works for traders: XAU, XAG, XAU/XAG ratio chart monthly.
If EUR/JPY=94 and if EUR/USD=0.94, then
We have UJ = 94/0.94=100, home works for traders: XAU, XAG, XAU/XAG ratio chart monthly.
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If we have DXY Trump election day's low 95.88 been broken then we're going back to old ranges.
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The weighted Japanese YEN intervention odd is increasing to 50% in June after an terrorism attack happened in Manchester yesterday. We don't trade those incidents because of moral rules, in fact, the investment set long before those things happen where based on technical chart combined with fundamental statistics.
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Source:
www.fxstreet.com/new...d-11200-201705241308
"President Draghi said that QE may have more side effects than negative rates, adding there is no need to deviate from policy guidance."
separating line ---------------------------------------------------------
It's against human nature, ok? The negative thing is destroying EW wave beauty if you look at this chart. The price continuity is sabotaged.
We don't play the God, ok? If the stock markets crash, then let it crash and let the inflation rise. A cycle is healthy.
Finally, we have to talk about our philosophy divergences.
www.fxstreet.com/new...d-11200-201705241308
"President Draghi said that QE may have more side effects than negative rates, adding there is no need to deviate from policy guidance."
separating line ---------------------------------------------------------
It's against human nature, ok? The negative thing is destroying EW wave beauty if you look at this chart. The price continuity is sabotaged.
We don't play the God, ok? If the stock markets crash, then let it crash and let the inflation rise. A cycle is healthy.
Finally, we have to talk about our philosophy divergences.
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Why we stopped at 0.7 but not at the 0.618 natural law? It's a manipulating. The over controlled money policy is leading us to no where but the inflation failure. The purchase power weakness is always leading the inflation failure. If we look back 2011 YEN intervention and 2014 Euro dollar intervention. Those money policies only pushed stock market to the new highs. We will see the final meal in 2 years, let's see.
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Based on another platform data, the DXY reached 96.00 low and bounced off to 96.13. In IDC data it didn't break last lows, the one in Nov. 2016 and recently one in June. But the EURUSD broke the highs, the one in Nov. 2016 and recently one in June. EU is still going higher after testing back 1.1300 where a selling became a support. Only if the YEN huge intervention may help DXY holding lows...
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If the ECB cancels negative interests soon, according to the mathematic equation, EURUSD could run to 1.20 where the DXY will be at 91. Then a more purchasing will make a bigger pull back for EURUSD forming a bigger bounce off of the DXY.
The ECB has added purchasing to 624B in June already from news, with Germany 2Y bonds yield has been raised from -1.0% to -0.6%.
The ECB has added purchasing to 624B in June already from news, with Germany 2Y bonds yield has been raised from -1.0% to -0.6%.
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Unbelievable, there're only 13 likes...after a 3 months rally.
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correcting...
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Every time when I found something amazing in this Forex market, I'm thinking about the Chinese market is a crap... Lol joking...
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The forex market shall be very boring for the EURUSD and the DXY within 12 months. From time trend based Fibonacci to the price trend based Fibonacci, truncations are everywhere. Let's see what the new FRB members can do to the VIX, but with the ECB soft, their choices are limited.
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This corrects in 12 months to 0.618 slowly... should be very boring days.
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15 years each cycle, this is very long term analysis.
Investors don't trade non-farm payroll, the way of trading news is called hedging. We can trade but it doesn't mean we will do it.
Be civilized, not animals.
Investors don't trade non-farm payroll, the way of trading news is called hedging. We can trade but it doesn't mean we will do it.
Be civilized, not animals.
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Considering central banks control VIX, this could be very very slow.
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Now the forex market big waves is coming back, we suggest traders to use trend techniques for following the waves until the market proves its turning.
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Rule one of trading trend line:
"When the trend line is broken, if the rising candle combination appears at first, in most cases the trend should resume. It may go to a parallel channel."
- Jared F. Martinez. The 10 Essentials of Forex Trading. ( ISBN 0-07-147688-1)
Yes, we read books.
"When the trend line is broken, if the rising candle combination appears at first, in most cases the trend should resume. It may go to a parallel channel."
- Jared F. Martinez. The 10 Essentials of Forex Trading. ( ISBN 0-07-147688-1)
Yes, we read books.
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Looking good on Swedish Krona...
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Source:
finance.yahoo.com/ne...tback-084920645.html
www.yahoo.com/news/t...eting-050340573.html
finance.yahoo.com/ne...y-six-205553667.html