EURUSD Weekly update 20-24.02

2023年2月18日

EU bounced from the lower band of the channel, logically we can expect the upper band to be met. This level also lying up with the monthly pivot points confluence.

The trend is bearish, so further updates will be required, when price reach this level.


Top-Down



The doji week, could bring some bullish moves. But for now the main trend remain bearish.


Yields





The US Yields are still higher, this is bearish for EU.

There is nothing to say about 10Y Yields, but it seems that 2Y US Yields are going down ( Europa Yields are not moving).

This change could be bullish for the pair.


SMT Divergence



SMT Divergence is very obvious. We may see some trend changes next week.



Support and resistance



It seems that price found support at this level.


DXY



DXY is moving in a bullish channel. Right now is reacting of very strong manipulation area, so I am expecting to go down at least to the lower band of the channel.


Elliot wave



I am working on the theory of wave 4. Expecting wave B to be formed this week.


Momentum



On a daily TF, price has more room to go down. RSI is oversold, thats why it may retrace, but nothing more.



On 4H price is ranging, thats why bullish move is very likely.



COT Reports



For now the professional traders are neutral, they are neutral since few weeks.



Traders were bullish on DXY, but it seems they are loosing the momentum. This could be perfect opportunity EU to go rally, at least for a while.


Last week forecast