What? Euro gonna be cheaper than USD?
This is likely scenario. It could take time, but I'm expecting EURUSD to have the next low at $0.85-$0.95 area. Look at the chart.
Symmetry everywhere
As you can see on this chart, most EURUSD crashes since 2008 had the same percentage of price falling: between 20% and 25%. This is the new nature of Euro. The most recent EURUSD downtrend correction's high was at around $1.16, therefore we can subtract 20-25% from that price and get the new possible target: $0.85-$0.95 range. This is where the Euro gonna fall to within the next 1-2 years. Or even earlier.
$0.85-$0.95 range support already confirmed in early 2000s
As you can see on the chart above, Euro already traded in that range in early 2000s and formed a pretty good support. So for now I'm not expecting the Euro's price to fall below that range.
If EURUSD > $1.16, then the downtrend is cancelled
In the (unlikely) case the EURUSD starts going up on high speed right now, breaks the $1.16 resistance and holds there, then my bearish scenario is cancelled and Europe gonna become happy again.
This is likely scenario. It could take time, but I'm expecting EURUSD to have the next low at $0.85-$0.95 area. Look at the chart.
Symmetry everywhere
As you can see on this chart, most EURUSD crashes since 2008 had the same percentage of price falling: between 20% and 25%. This is the new nature of Euro. The most recent EURUSD downtrend correction's high was at around $1.16, therefore we can subtract 20-25% from that price and get the new possible target: $0.85-$0.95 range. This is where the Euro gonna fall to within the next 1-2 years. Or even earlier.
$0.85-$0.95 range support already confirmed in early 2000s
As you can see on the chart above, Euro already traded in that range in early 2000s and formed a pretty good support. So for now I'm not expecting the Euro's price to fall below that range.
If EURUSD > $1.16, then the downtrend is cancelled
In the (unlikely) case the EURUSD starts going up on high speed right now, breaks the $1.16 resistance and holds there, then my bearish scenario is cancelled and Europe gonna become happy again.
コメント:
The downtrend seems failed for now
