ユーロ／米ドルショート
Multi-timeframe structure suggests sellers have the upper hand
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912 and closed firm.
June extended gains to highs at 1.1422 and finished adding 1.19%, despite running into opposition at the lower ledge of nearby supply from 1.1857/1.1352 mid-month (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).
July is currently seen toying with levels just ahead of the aforesaid supply.
With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval). It’s typical, in the case of bearish formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Common take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (of legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
As you can see, the Fib targets have yet to be met.
H4 timeframe:
Monday’s action brought light to a 127.2% AB=CD bearish pattern at 1.1336 along with nearby resistance at 1.1348. As you can see, the aforesaid resistances were adequate enough to hold back buyers Tuesday, throwing candles back to the breached channel formation (1.1422).
Breaking through channel support today may lead to the 1.1219 (July 3) low making an entrance, and with a little oomph, demand at 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply).
H1 timeframe:
Heading into US trade Tuesday, a mild whipsaw above 1.13 emerged, a move that tested local supply at 1.1316/1.1306. This had control change hands over to sellers, with price addressing the 100-period simple moving average at 1.1270 into the closing stages of the session.
Clearing the aforesaid simple moving average today shines light on demand coming in from 1.1239/1.1251, merging with 1.1250 support. A break here, however, places 1.1181/1.1202 demand on the radar.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352 continues to emphasise a bearish tone in this market. The daily chart also reminds traders there’s still scope for a drop to the 38.2% Fib level at 1.1106.
H4 is appearing soft off channel resistance-turned support (1.1422) after fading the recent AB=CD completion. This, combined with the higher timeframes, sends a bearish undercurrent through to the H1 timeframe today. Therefore, the current simple moving average is likely on its way out, with price poised to make its way towards demand around the 1.1250 point.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912 and closed firm.
June extended gains to highs at 1.1422 and finished adding 1.19%, despite running into opposition at the lower ledge of nearby supply from 1.1857/1.1352 mid-month (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).
July is currently seen toying with levels just ahead of the aforesaid supply.
With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval). It’s typical, in the case of bearish formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Common take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (of legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
As you can see, the Fib targets have yet to be met.
H4 timeframe:
Monday’s action brought light to a 127.2% AB=CD bearish pattern at 1.1336 along with nearby resistance at 1.1348. As you can see, the aforesaid resistances were adequate enough to hold back buyers Tuesday, throwing candles back to the breached channel formation (1.1422).
Breaking through channel support today may lead to the 1.1219 (July 3) low making an entrance, and with a little oomph, demand at 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply).
H1 timeframe:
Heading into US trade Tuesday, a mild whipsaw above 1.13 emerged, a move that tested local supply at 1.1316/1.1306. This had control change hands over to sellers, with price addressing the 100-period simple moving average at 1.1270 into the closing stages of the session.
Clearing the aforesaid simple moving average today shines light on demand coming in from 1.1239/1.1251, merging with 1.1250 support. A break here, however, places 1.1181/1.1202 demand on the radar.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352 continues to emphasise a bearish tone in this market. The daily chart also reminds traders there’s still scope for a drop to the 38.2% Fib level at 1.1106.
H4 is appearing soft off channel resistance-turned support (1.1422) after fading the recent AB=CD completion. This, combined with the higher timeframes, sends a bearish undercurrent through to the H1 timeframe today. Therefore, the current simple moving average is likely on its way out, with price poised to make its way towards demand around the 1.1250 point.
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