Trading opportunity have arisen, as EURUSD is raising today morning after a severe break from 1.36 to 1.3490 a day ago. I would go short from 1,3575 with a stop loss at 1,3610 targeting 1,3505 which means an excellent risk reward trade.
Rationale:
Technical: 1,3640 has meant an important top for the EURUSD cross. There is a decisive red candle moving the prices downward from this important 1,3640 with massive momentum. The important pivotal zone of 1,3570 has fallen, however the round number around 1.35 has turned the prices up again. I interpret this upward move as a simple retest of the break.
Extreme positioning: there is a crowded positioning among professional investors in favour of the EUR according to the commitment reports. There are around 65K EUR long contracts accumulated by hedge funds and other professional investors, which is very close to the historical record. These extremes in positioning has meant important turning points in the past as it means there are no more buying power to send the prices higher.
Rationale:
Technical: 1,3640 has meant an important top for the EURUSD cross. There is a decisive red candle moving the prices downward from this important 1,3640 with massive momentum. The important pivotal zone of 1,3570 has fallen, however the round number around 1.35 has turned the prices up again. I interpret this upward move as a simple retest of the break.
Extreme positioning: there is a crowded positioning among professional investors in favour of the EUR according to the commitment reports. There are around 65K EUR long contracts accumulated by hedge funds and other professional investors, which is very close to the historical record. These extremes in positioning has meant important turning points in the past as it means there are no more buying power to send the prices higher.