Will we soon see a bullish EURUSD?

昨日

You could say that my argument is far fetched (and I would not argue that), but hear me out please!!

Weekly chart

Note that the green zone has held as support for the most part. The 20sma is quite far above price, will price revert to the mean? This pair has tried to break below the zone for several weeks recently, but failed.

Daily chart (above)
We can see a double top around 1.1189 where the bears gained control. There also could be a double bottom at 1.0343, maybe.. Look at the relatively large bearish candle 3 days ago, it does show a lot of power and momentum behind the bears. But where did all that power go? I don't see any momentum in the next 2 days with the bears, actually maybe the bulls are trying to take over. The quick recovery of price from the big bearish move looks like what many traders call a false break. Is it that? time will tell.

H4 chart

You can now see that price has been consolidating for the past few days (yellow box) and this does look like accumulation of orders. The bears did try to push through strongly but failed. In fact a lower high was formed when the bulls succeeded to break above that structure with some strength (BOS at 1.04122).

I realize that this happened on a Friday and during the holiday period when volume is low and reading price action at these times is less reliable.
But I do believe that if you are still trading, then paying very close attention to EURUSD could be beneficial. Watch other pairs too to see if the USD is getting weaker.

Merry Christmas, happy holidays and have a great 2025

This is not a trade recommendation, merely my own analysis. If you decide to trade this, you should be aware that trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose. Please use sound money and risk management, trading without a stop or moving the stop away from price is a recipe for disaster.
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It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros