GPBINR Update-4 Y-->H-A complete up to date analysis of GBPINR
Its a long time since my last analysis being documented publicly and so an end to end analysis should refresh the memory of what's going on with this pair. Let's start with super long time frame-the yearly time frame and drill down into lower time frames. Year-->Month-->Day-->Hour shall be the approach to resolution
Chart 1: Yearly
Statistical view:
Yearly chart is straight forward. Statistics show that GBP had no hesitation gaining strength against INR since 1983 until 2014. After 2014, strength of GBP was slowed down. Recent gains were at 41 degrees which is slower than the previous losses at -49 degrees. The high of 2021 and low of 2022 are important levels to watch. These levels should be watched for close above or close below on a step line (O+C+H+L)/4 chart. The time taken by price action to recover from losses during 2014-2017 is greater than the recovery from 2007-2010 which implies that the GBP is losing confidence against INR.
Technical view:
Motive and corrective phases could be identified with step-ups and step-downs. Recent uptrend from 2017-2021 is a corrective wave B to 20014-2017 downtrend A. End of B wave could be marked upon break below 2022 low of 97.1625 in 2023 or it could continue to 1.272% of wave A which is 105.0122. Hope fully we could get this answered when drilled down into lower timeframes. Price action since 2014 shall be focused while drilling down into monthly time frame.
Chart 2: Monthly
Waves are ripped apart and resolved in monthly chart helping with better insight on what's going on with the price action. Wave A has 3 clear internal waves and is complete. Wave B has 3 clear internal waves, however the recent 2 waves make it look confusing. Wave B might be incomplete and could be a 5 wave pattern forming either an expanding triangle or a leading diagonal of upcoming motive wave or an ending diagonal of whole uptrend. It is worth to be noted that the corrective waves in red are retracing to the same level of their corresponding motive partners in green. Also the motive waves in green are stretching themselves with higher momentum and distance. If wave B is an expanding triangle, then the current inconclusive wave should end or reverse heavily at 102.9624. If it is a diagonal then the price action should close beyond 103.3464 and the downtrend which follows there after shall decide whether it is a leading or ending diagonal. There seems to be a lot of time until Dec 2023 for the market to decide on what to be done. However 99.8734 is an important level to watch which when broken below before end of July 2023 shall slow down the upward momentum. Let's find out the behavior of this inconclusive wave in daily chart.
Chart 3: Daily
The inconclusive wave is ripped apart on daily chart. The motive wave is made up of 3 waves followed by a corrective wave X which is followed by a motive wave of less momentum compared to the earlier motive wave. The recent wave in question had almost retraced wave C of the earlier motive wave and hence it is a corrective wave to the whole motive wave with less momentum. Price action is at the trend line of inconclusive wave and at 101.8958 the support where wave B of previous wave ended. To get an idea about what this wave in question is doing hope 1 hour chart should help.
Chart 4: Hourly
Corrective wave clearly dissects two motive waves. Motive-2 wave is slower but had travelled a little farther than Motive-1. The downtrend is not yet over as there is no reversal signal. The recent price action seems to be a pause to downtrend. Lets wait for further clues to short GBPINR. Hopefully the wait might end by June 23 2023.
To understand the concepts behind my analysis please checkout the linked idea. Happy trading :)
Disclaimer: Validate with your analysis before trading. This post is not a trading advise but a product of personal research and analysis
Chart 1: Yearly
Statistical view:
Yearly chart is straight forward. Statistics show that GBP had no hesitation gaining strength against INR since 1983 until 2014. After 2014, strength of GBP was slowed down. Recent gains were at 41 degrees which is slower than the previous losses at -49 degrees. The high of 2021 and low of 2022 are important levels to watch. These levels should be watched for close above or close below on a step line (O+C+H+L)/4 chart. The time taken by price action to recover from losses during 2014-2017 is greater than the recovery from 2007-2010 which implies that the GBP is losing confidence against INR.
Technical view:
Motive and corrective phases could be identified with step-ups and step-downs. Recent uptrend from 2017-2021 is a corrective wave B to 20014-2017 downtrend A. End of B wave could be marked upon break below 2022 low of 97.1625 in 2023 or it could continue to 1.272% of wave A which is 105.0122. Hope fully we could get this answered when drilled down into lower timeframes. Price action since 2014 shall be focused while drilling down into monthly time frame.
Chart 2: Monthly
Waves are ripped apart and resolved in monthly chart helping with better insight on what's going on with the price action. Wave A has 3 clear internal waves and is complete. Wave B has 3 clear internal waves, however the recent 2 waves make it look confusing. Wave B might be incomplete and could be a 5 wave pattern forming either an expanding triangle or a leading diagonal of upcoming motive wave or an ending diagonal of whole uptrend. It is worth to be noted that the corrective waves in red are retracing to the same level of their corresponding motive partners in green. Also the motive waves in green are stretching themselves with higher momentum and distance. If wave B is an expanding triangle, then the current inconclusive wave should end or reverse heavily at 102.9624. If it is a diagonal then the price action should close beyond 103.3464 and the downtrend which follows there after shall decide whether it is a leading or ending diagonal. There seems to be a lot of time until Dec 2023 for the market to decide on what to be done. However 99.8734 is an important level to watch which when broken below before end of July 2023 shall slow down the upward momentum. Let's find out the behavior of this inconclusive wave in daily chart.
Chart 3: Daily
The inconclusive wave is ripped apart on daily chart. The motive wave is made up of 3 waves followed by a corrective wave X which is followed by a motive wave of less momentum compared to the earlier motive wave. The recent wave in question had almost retraced wave C of the earlier motive wave and hence it is a corrective wave to the whole motive wave with less momentum. Price action is at the trend line of inconclusive wave and at 101.8958 the support where wave B of previous wave ended. To get an idea about what this wave in question is doing hope 1 hour chart should help.
Chart 4: Hourly
Corrective wave clearly dissects two motive waves. Motive-2 wave is slower but had travelled a little farther than Motive-1. The downtrend is not yet over as there is no reversal signal. The recent price action seems to be a pause to downtrend. Lets wait for further clues to short GBPINR. Hopefully the wait might end by June 23 2023.
To understand the concepts behind my analysis please checkout the linked idea. Happy trading :)
Disclaimer: Validate with your analysis before trading. This post is not a trading advise but a product of personal research and analysis
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