GBP/USD Repeating the same as last year?

2019年1月13日

At the moment with all the Brexit uncertainty going on, it
is difficult to try and implement any technical analysis.
Nonetheless, I have made an attempt to forecast the price
of GBP/USD based solely on technicals.

The chart is quite cluttered with information, but I will try
my best to explain what it is you should be getting from
this analysis.

Key lines: Orange solid line
Orange line with breaks

The solid orange line is the measured move from the
low of Jan. 2018 to the high of 2018.
The orange line with breaks is the same measured move
placed at the low of 2018 (I'm using the 1.2477 as a
low for 2018 since the flash crash low differs on
various platforms.)

The cloned measured move from last year when placed
at the low of 1.2477 extends to 1.3413, putting it right
into Fibonacci confluence zone as depicted on the chart, as well
as nearly reaching the 50% retracement from 1.4377
to 1.2477.

Purple resistance trend line:
The first time price closed above the 4 year upper trend
resistance line was precisely on year ago, and just
before the end of the year price remained above it.
Both times when price did close below it, a rally ensued,
thus evidence that we might see a significant bullish
rally again.

Therefore, the key focus should be that trend line going
forward as it will most certainly be a decider for bullish
or bearish sentiment.

The second solid orange line, is the measured move from
1.4377 to 1.2477, thus, should price get rejected if it
reached 1.3413, the next target per the measured move
objective is 1.1510/00, a level that has been mentioned
a few times by analysts in recent times.

I believe there is a very good chance to see a bullish
rally in the first part of 2019. Evidence for that is the
fact that price is still trading above the 4 - now almost
5- year upper trend resistance line. Price bounced of the
78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2498, which is
the same level from where the bullish rally commenced in
April, 2017.

In addition, the Commitment of Traders report
(COT) reveals evidence for a bullish rally as well. More
specifically when comparing the data from Dec. 04 to
Dec. 18, 2017 and Dec. 03 to Dec. 17, 2018. I am aware
that the current US government shutdown has caused
a discontinuation of COT data, which is why I compared
it to last date when data was published.

COT Dec.04, 2017 Dec.11, 2017 Dec.18, 2017
Commercials: -17'094 Comm: -17'942 Comm: -26'832
Large Spec: +6'406 Large Spec: +11'388 Large Spec: +20'388

COT Dec.03, 2018 Dec.10, 2018 Dec.17, 2018
Commercials: +59'120 Comm: +61'589 Comm: +79'388
Large Spec: -39'750 Large Spec: -42'419 Large Spec: -60'723

Thus, looking at this data there is additional evidence
for the case of a bullish rally to come. Also, I believe at
this point the market has priced in nearly everything to
start a bullish trend, especially from these 'dirt-cheap'
levels which certainly attracts bargain hunters.

This analysis does not intend everyone to go long, but
there is a lot of technical evidence pointing to higher
prices to come.

Trade safe and good luck.

And a happy new year to everyone.