Gold and Two week Volume/Charting

2020年1月20日

TLDR: Lots of TA pointing to the downside here, with the least bearish scenario getting us to about $1,400. Most bearish is a multi year move to $1,000

Just under two weeks ago I saw Gold Futures paint the highest three day volume of all time on COMEX with a red candle, and a few days after that I saw that it had also painted the highest weekly volume with another red candle. A look at the two week candles show that the last week close was 3.999M, which has it tied for the second highest red volume of all time and in about 4th place for highest volume.

The Bollinger Bands seem like an obvious choice to help us view the data. Hitting the bollinger band with high volume and seeing a rejection wick suggest we have reached a local high. The RSI and Stocastic are basic additions to help me look for divergences and changes in momentum. The black arrows on the RSI show the previous times over the last 15 years that the two week RSI has hit this level and it strongly suggest we will test the baseline as support and if that fails price action will go edge to edge on the bollinger band.

The last black arrow occured months ago and the we didn't reach the baseline. This sets up the potential divergence between our current price and RSI level. I think ultimately we are going to test the triangle support and we will see price action go edge to edge on the bollinger band, with a bounce or some cliff-handing on the baseline. I know we are only part way through this stucture but it is giving me a very head and shoulders feeling. I am strongly contemplating closeing some of my positions as if there were a neckline and look for a rising wedge to create a right shoulder. The abitious part of me wants to hope for the Stoch to cleanly go from over-bought to over-sold but I think that might be a little greedy. I haven't decided yet how preciisly I should be taking profit, which isn't good.

Below is my double cloud set up with OBV EMAS and Money Flow Index with dual settings. The OBV is clearly divergent on the two week timeframe and I wish he had enough volume history to see how the last long term consolidation went. If we have set a local high based on the high volume, rejection candle, and divergences on the Stoch and RSI then pattern recognition at the blue ovals would suggest we are going into the clouds to find support.

The OBV divergence is pretty clear. One thing to look for will be a break of the 100 OBV EMA by the OBV and faster EMAS. I am also looking for the divergence shown in purple on the MFI and the OBV EMAs to have a bullish cross before I go long... in like 7-10 years.

The Money flow index fasta and slow lookback periods are looking like they will have a bearish cross and I will be watching for the fast MFI to at least reach the purple zone, if not touch the trendline.

If you look at the Volume Profile and focus at the begining of the bull market you will see that the Upper Value Area has acted as resistance. This predicts a very bearsih move to the point of control just under $1,300 and if that fails testing the lower value area at $1,000.