Gold (GC1! Futures) Identifying next SHORT zone

アップデート済

As of today, GC1 has now broken above the current zone, and has closed on a higher timeframe. In accordance with prior breaks, we now look for a retest of the broken zone at the 0.5 FIB of todays daily candle:

The next target is either:

1) The next zone up

OR
2) The prior neck line of the long term H&S identified in August.

Keep in mind, despite this short term bullish price action, the trend for Gold is still BEARISH, hence why we continue to long for short opportunities at each historical zone.

Just to be clear:

My trading is based off of many factors, but an important factor is the many historical monthly zones plotted on the chart. While there will be times where the zones are broken against our favour, the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of the time, these zones will hold.

As highlighted on the chart, these are all examples of where adhering to these zones would have netted 50 - 100 points moves. Points, not pips.

I will be posting more real time updates though the day of 20/10/23.

Stay safe and manage your risk accordingly!

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Just for a visual representation:

This trading style is based off of high probability set ups. If your goal is to scalp, then perhaps you may want to look at an alternative style!

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Re-alignment of H&S neckline:

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Note the gap down on close:

Keep in mind, Biden is speaking at 01:00 am

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Keep in mind, DXY is STILL bullish...

Don't let yesterdays price action deceive you, the fundamentals are every much still in play, especially with Biden's speech coming in under an hour..

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Seems like a potential inverse head & shoulders is forming:

I will re-assess after UK open in the morning, as right now it is still very late in the night.

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Biden has made it clear in his speech, he is committed to providing not only aid to Israel, but Taiwan and Ukraine also. Reports have stated that this could be up to $100 Billion.

As we know, more money printing in the system results in more inflation, so you can expect more hikes to come. These kind of fundamentals are going to come into play for gold.

He also made it clear that he is working with Egypt to provide aid to Palestine. I am not saying to be a fan of Biden, but we need to separate our feelings from the fundamentals. This should give some ease to the market, but let us see at UK open.

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GC1 Market Profile post Biden:

Now we wait for UK open, sleep well!

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1 hour after UK open, we are now touching the 2nd target area:

Now I am looking for a breakout short OR a candle close touching R1, followed by a strong rejection candle:

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There was not a strong rejection candle after the candle close touching R1. I am now long, aiming for the next zone of interest.

At the zone, I will then look again for a valid short position.

I have also moved the breakout short location to the same location as the long SL. This essentially acts as positional reverse:

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トレード稼働中

手動でトレードを終了しました

Closing my long here for a very small loss

Going to leave my break out short below, and we'll add on a retest of R1.

It appears reality is now coming back into the market.

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Final update for the day...

Expect the sell off to continue into next week, and for the following weeks. As I have said on many posts, while we have had some short term bullish price action, the overall trend is BEARISH.

Now that you have entered, manage your risk accordingly. I will be posting an update again tommorow:

トレード稼働中

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PS: The key take away of the above chart is that we want price to enter the red shaded area. This area has low support, so logically you would expect price to cut through very cleanly.

トレード終了: ストップロスに到達

Iran news seems to have spooked the market more than expected. Took some profit on the breakout sell but the rest was stopped out just above todays highs.

Not the best week, essentially break even profit wise now, however, I am transparent with my wins and losses so you can see the ups and downs of trading.

I will be waiting for the daily trend to flip bullish next week. May need to ignore the trend for now, but let's see.

Aaron_K_Trading