Yesterday close went through the supporting cliff.
The SPX vs DAX posture is very divergent with DAX falling 4% and SP500 still at the top.
Although DAX is oversold locally, I think the next move is one where SPX will go down (rather than the contrary) and that is the tough call here.
If that holds true, DAX should have a decent rebound from ~11,500 before pursuing lower in May (abc correction).
Take away:
- Game plan: a hug on the 125d ema in 4 weeks.
- 11,200/11,500 is probably a great buy.
- TOP could be around 13,500 in Nov15.
Trading:
Still holding shorts at 11,850 level - far from optimum but held through my worst case scenario (which could have been 12,550).
The SPX vs DAX posture is very divergent with DAX falling 4% and SP500 still at the top.
Although DAX is oversold locally, I think the next move is one where SPX will go down (rather than the contrary) and that is the tough call here.
If that holds true, DAX should have a decent rebound from ~11,500 before pursuing lower in May (abc correction).
Take away:
- Game plan: a hug on the 125d ema in 4 weeks.
- 11,200/11,500 is probably a great buy.
- TOP could be around 13,500 in Nov15.
Trading:
Still holding shorts at 11,850 level - far from optimum but held through my worst case scenario (which could have been 12,550).
