Context
• Price has been capped by a well-defined descending trendline (orange-tagged lower highs) since last week.
• Into month-end, the selloff lost momentum and compressed into a falling wedge/descending triangle against a 23,93x–23,94x demand (marked by EQL/“weak low”).
• We’ve now impulsed through the local trendline and into the prior 1H supply band, flipping it to potential support.
Structure & confluence on the break
• Multiple BOS/CHoCH prints inside the wedge signaled absorption/basing before the break.
• The breakout occurs around the 0.618 pullback area of the last minor leg, with a neat cluster of equal lows below (liquidity left behind), and room to the upside until the next heavy area: the higher, older trendline / “Strong High” zone.
• Measured from the wedge height, the projection aligns with ~24,387 (shown on chart).
Plan (not financial advice)
• Bias: Long on breakout and/or retest of the broken trendline / prior supply.
• Entry zone: 23,970–23,986 (retest/acceptance above the break).
• Invalidation: 1H close back below 23,930–23,937 (back inside the wedge and under the micro base).
• Protective stop: 23,902 (beneath the “weak low” and wedge base).
• Targets:
• TP1: 24,060 (first 1H supply & dashed mid-range).
• TP2: 24,180–24,220 (prior EQH/dashed line).
• TP3: 24,300 (round number & prior reaction).
• Final: 24,387 (confluence with the higher trendline; your blue arrow).
• R:R guide: From ~23,980 entry to 23,902 stop is ~78 pts risk; to 24,387 is ~+407 pts → ~5.2R if full target prints.
• Management: Once price accepts above ~23,986, consider moving to BE; trail under each new 1H swing low as we stair-step up. Failure to hold 23,970 on the retest = stand aside and reassess.
Alt (bearish) scenario
• A sharp rejection from 24,06x–24,18x and a close back under 23,930 would turn the break into a fake-out, exposing 23,880 → 23,840 and, if that fails, the deeper demand around 23,80x.
Heads-up (event risk this week)
• Eurozone/Germany PMIs (Mon–Tue), Euro area flash HICP (Tue), Germany Factory Orders (Fri), and US NFP (Fri) can all inject volatility—size appropriately and be wary around release times.
GER30
• Price has been capped by a well-defined descending trendline (orange-tagged lower highs) since last week.
• Into month-end, the selloff lost momentum and compressed into a falling wedge/descending triangle against a 23,93x–23,94x demand (marked by EQL/“weak low”).
• We’ve now impulsed through the local trendline and into the prior 1H supply band, flipping it to potential support.
Structure & confluence on the break
• Multiple BOS/CHoCH prints inside the wedge signaled absorption/basing before the break.
• The breakout occurs around the 0.618 pullback area of the last minor leg, with a neat cluster of equal lows below (liquidity left behind), and room to the upside until the next heavy area: the higher, older trendline / “Strong High” zone.
• Measured from the wedge height, the projection aligns with ~24,387 (shown on chart).
Plan (not financial advice)
• Bias: Long on breakout and/or retest of the broken trendline / prior supply.
• Entry zone: 23,970–23,986 (retest/acceptance above the break).
• Invalidation: 1H close back below 23,930–23,937 (back inside the wedge and under the micro base).
• Protective stop: 23,902 (beneath the “weak low” and wedge base).
• Targets:
• TP1: 24,060 (first 1H supply & dashed mid-range).
• TP2: 24,180–24,220 (prior EQH/dashed line).
• TP3: 24,300 (round number & prior reaction).
• Final: 24,387 (confluence with the higher trendline; your blue arrow).
• R:R guide: From ~23,980 entry to 23,902 stop is ~78 pts risk; to 24,387 is ~+407 pts → ~5.2R if full target prints.
• Management: Once price accepts above ~23,986, consider moving to BE; trail under each new 1H swing low as we stair-step up. Failure to hold 23,970 on the retest = stand aside and reassess.
Alt (bearish) scenario
• A sharp rejection from 24,06x–24,18x and a close back under 23,930 would turn the break into a fake-out, exposing 23,880 → 23,840 and, if that fails, the deeper demand around 23,80x.
Heads-up (event risk this week)
• Eurozone/Germany PMIs (Mon–Tue), Euro area flash HICP (Tue), Germany Factory Orders (Fri), and US NFP (Fri) can all inject volatility—size appropriately and be wary around release times.
GER30 
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これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または保証する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類のアドバイスや推奨を意図したものではなく、またそのようなものでもありません。詳しくは利用規約をご覧ください。