Gold near Selling benchmark breakout point

2022年5月26日

Gold's general commentary: Gold manages to keep the Higher levels despite the #1,848.80 Support zone break and stabilization on Bond Yields, in addition aswell very decisive uptrend on DX was quickly rejected near Medium-term Resistance zone and the Usd-Jpy Bullish Gap fill and Intra-day soaring provided steady ground for Gold’s rejection and goes well with current market sentiment. Especially the fact that the Bond Yields broken the first Resistance on Hourly 4 chart’s Ascending Channel (which is a good sign for Gold’s Sellers), makes Gold very Bearish on the Short-term, with it's own Hourly 1 chart having regained complete Bearish status for the first time since late April. These side Swings that I am witnessing are consolidation candles. Furthest line of the defense is #1,842.80 - #1,840.80 once again, if broken, could result as an decline with a Bottom below #1,806.80 first, then in addition #1,800.80 psychological barrier awaits. As long as that line is intact (due to Inflation on ATH’s), Price-action may constantly pressure for Resistance test (unless one of Support benchmarks break), in line with the developments on Yields, especially DX. Every Support rejection, Gold will have visible Buying pressure and Buyers accumulation on the aftermath. As soon as the new market dynamics, post FOMC, find their prior balance, Gold can resume its steady Medium-term downtrend.


Technical analysis: Gold had Short-term Bullish sentiment because of Inflation fears (not being transitory) and DX on much needed correction from Higher High’s peaks (levels biggest in the last #20 Years), but Support shown decent durability and preserved the Selling outlook, however Gold should engage the more serious traditional (FOMC aftermath) decline as market speculators preserved Gold once already before the minutes. It is risky to engage any kind of order at the moment as DX Hourly 4 chart’s recovery can alter the Buying sequence on Gold anytime, on the other hand: Investors are not willing to Sell Gold due to Inflation fears. #1,842.80 is representing the Support on Short-term as the mild recovery on DX forced out Gold towards Weekly Low’s. As mentioned multiple times on my remarks, as long as Support fractal holds and doesn't break, Gold is more likely to experience another Buying sequence towards yesterday’s session High’s and possible #1,882.80 peak’s test. A break and Daily close above the #1,862.80 is adding credence to Buyers which may aim the Higher High’s peak once again where Gold imitates the DX movements (but that outlook has small or very little chances to develop). Everything depends of course on market closing on today's session. If it diverge much from the forecast, Buyers may arise where market sentiment might change and amplify the uptrend in continuation. Hourly 4 chart still holds some Bearish bias, but if the January #14 - February #8, #2017. Year cycle is yet to be repeated, correction move throughout yesterday’s session was just attempt to cool down Overbought waters and #1,882.80 - #1,888.80 peak might be tested within #2 sessions now on the aftermath. However, if Support benchmark gets invalidated, #1,806.80 test would be inevitable.


My position: As discussed above, I hold no order at the moment, awaiting one of the sides to prevail. I will not Buy Gold unless #1,862.80 breaks and market closes above it (as Gold is hard to rise lately), however I will Sell Gold on spot if #1,842.80 - #1,840.80 breaks, Targeting #1,806.80 Selling extension (Selling on every High).