Gold Is "Bullish" —Going Down (Watch ~$2,170 First)

8月26日

The signals would be considered bullish by many... The gold up-move is over-extended and shows weakness.

The monthly looks bullish as well as the weekly, but this is a strong bearish chart setup.

We call it bearish because it has huge potential to go lower, small potential to continue higher.

The daily candles show weakness based on the action after 20-August. Not many bearish signals are present, can be tricky to predict.

The MACD and RSI reveal a 4-5 months old bearish divergence. There you have one.

The bullish move started October 2023.
40% growth (39.83%) in 319 days.

The correction can last between 128 and 159 days.

Bearish targets:

1) $2,400
2) $2,300
3) ~$2,170 (This is the level to keep in mind)
4) $2,000 (Baseline)

Since it was a strong bullish cycle, we should get a strong correction. Simply because the market tends to look for balance, no other reason.

If there is small growth, the correction is also small.
If the growth phase last a lot and there is plenty of growth, the correction tends to balance out this growing period. That is why it is called a "correction." It doesn't mean up or down, it means that it is going to "correct" whatever is considered by the market to have gone out of balance.

If balance is not lost, the growth sustainable, then it can continue; there is no need for a correction.

Because of the economics, the politics and the rest... Have you noticed that traders have full control over the markets now?

In the past you would see the markets acting and reacting based on the news, political perception and public opinion, but this isn't the case anymore. We have war, inflation and the rest, Gold is supposed to be a safe-haven and yet, it grew when tensions were lower and it is going to crash when according to conventional wisdom, it is supposed to go up.

Oopps... I said too much.
Market conditions can always change.

This analysis is biased because I am taking into consideration not only the chart signals, but all the knowledge that I gathered by working 24/7 every single day.

The chart is technically bullish with bearish potential and definitely not a LONG trade for experienced traders, regardless of what actually happens.

There are moments to go LONG and moments to SHORT, but the market won't necessarily go according to the right approach based on trading.

One can have a good trade fail, or, one can have a bad trade succeed. This happens.
It is wise not to confuse one with the other.

Regardless of what the market does, it would be wise right now to stay away from Gold.

The bullish move looks over-extended and weakness is starting to show.

Namaste.

8月28日

ノート

The DXY has gone bullish, at the same time Gold (XAUUSD) is going down.

This can be the start of a major correction. Brace for impact.

9月4日

トレード稼働中

While signals were really early when I published this trade-idea, it is early no more. We have some confirmation with continued bearish action on the daily timeframe. It is still early though.

A weekly close below $2450 is needed for the bearish bias and potential to strenghten. Bullish action can easily change this chart dynamics.

Namaste.