Analysing Gold's Reversal: Failed Breakout and Weekly Pin-Bar

7月22日

Let’s examine two, simple yet significant price patterns that have occurred simultaneously in the gold market across two separate timeframes.

Daily Candle Chart Analysis: Failed Breakout

Last week's price action in the gold market was a tale of two halves. The first half of the week saw gold surge to new all-time highs following a combination of declining yields and a weakening US dollar. These factors created a favourable environment for gold, pushing prices up to $2,470 on Tuesday. This surge was further fuelled by softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Thursday the previous week, which heightened market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The anticipation of lower interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, added to the bullish sentiment.

However, the breakout lost momentum on Wednesday as gold prices struggled to hold above the resistance level. By Thursday, prices had closed back below this critical resistance, signalling a loss of upward momentum. This inability to maintain higher prices despite the favourable conditions suggested that the breakout might be unsustainable. On Friday, gold prices melted lower, confirming the false breakout as the price action decisively moved away from the recent highs.

This simple failed breakout price pattern is significant because it indicates that the market was not ready to sustain higher gold prices despite the initial bullish drivers. It reflects a shift in market sentiment, where the initial optimism was replaced by caution and profit-taking.


Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

Weekly Candle Chart Analysis: Bearish Pin-Bar Candle

The weekly candle chart presents a more comprehensive view of the gold market's shift in sentiment. The bearish pin-bar reversal formed on the weekly chart is a significant pattern that underscores this change. A pin-bar reversal is characterised by a long upper shadow and a small real body, indicating that while buyers initially pushed prices higher, sellers ultimately took control, driving prices back down by the end of the week.

This bearish pin-bar reversal suggests a more substantial shift in market sentiment compared to the daily chart. The inability to sustain higher prices on a weekly basis highlights the strength of the resistance zone and points to the potential for further downside pressure. This pattern indicates that despite the initial bullish conditions, the market's optimism was replaced by caution and profit-taking, reinforcing the bearish outlook for the near term.


Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

Summary:

Gold’s daily candle chart highlights the short-term failure of the breakout and immediate loss of momentum, while the weekly candle chart's bearish pin-bar reversal signals a more significant shift in sentiment and potential for further downside.

Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.

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