Gold Trend 21/02 - 25/02

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Gold stayed near the 8-month high last Friday. The price has hit the 8-month high very early in the Asian session at 1902 after the market opened at 1898. The price was basically bounded by the 1890-96 range throughout the Asian and European sessions. Buying resumed at the US session, with the day ending near 1897.

The upward momentum has slowed down after the price escaped the S-T support line(1) last Friday on the 1-hour chart, and the S-T pattern has shifted horizontally to the range 1886-1900(3). Although the price has touched a new high,1908, early in the Asian session today, the selling resistance above 1900 has yet to clear. It will be a sign of the price preparing to break the upside 1908 if the price can close above 1900. Trendline (2) is the support to the downside for now.

Since gold broke out from the triangle pattern(4), it has moved higher along within the uptrend channel(5). The selling zone at 1900-08(7) had rejected the price this morning. Before the price clears all the resistance above 1900, the S-T consolidation should occur between 1870-1900(6).

S-T Resistances:
1908
1900
1895

Market price: 1892

S-T Supports:
1888
1880-83
1876

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The gold market closed near the 8-month high yesterday. The trading day began at 1897 and the price has quickly jumped to a new recent high of 1908 early in the Asian session. However, the price has a drawback to below 1900 very soon, and it was traded between 1887-97 the majority of the day. Gold has finally cleared all the selling pressure at 1900(1) late in the trading day, with the day ending near 1903, up by USD 5.

Gold has defended the support level of 1900 early in the Asian session today after it escaped the horizontal trading zone(2) yesterday. The support trendline(3) is still valid while gold is still maintaining its upward momentum in the 1-hour chart. News from Ukraine is still dominating the S-T movement of gold price. If the price can break out from the resistance zone of 1908-10, the upside target can be set at near 1930.

A bullish signal(4) has occurred on the daily chart after gold has been able to close near day-high after early rallies for the past 2 days. If the price clears the resistance of 1900-08(5), the next upside target on the daily chart will be near 1950.

S-T Resistances:
1920
1915
1910

Market price: 1908

S-T Supports:
1903-00
1893
1888

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Gold eased from the 8-month high yesterday. The market opened near day high at 1908, and the price has been rejected by the key resistance(1) at 1908-10 during the Asian session. Selling began at the European session, and the price has traded between 1896-1906 thereafter. The day ended at 1898, below the 1900 level.

Selling pressure remains heavy above 1900, so fart the price hasn't been able to trade above 1900 for too long. Expect the price to stay range-bound between 1891-1910(3) in the early sessions. If the price breaks the S-T support line(2), expect it to consolidate toward 1883(4).

The bullish signal(4) that was mentioned yesterday was neutralized by the market with the long wick(4.1). 1900-08 resistance zone is still valid, 1887-1900(5) should be the trading range for today on the daiy chart. From a pure chart pattern & technically analysis perspective, it should be perfect timing to deploy an M-T short-selling strategy above 1900 after the reversal yesterday along with the uptrend channel (6). However, the market is highly influenced by the news from Ukraine lately, make sure a tight stop loss is in place.

S-T Resistnaces:
1908
1900
1897

Market Price: 1896

S-T Supports:
1892
1888
1880-83

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The overall price movement yesterday was pretty much in line with our expectations, where the price has been trading within the 1891-1910(1) range, and the day ended near day high 1907.

Carried the buying momentum from yesterday, the price has jumped across all the significant S-T resistance(2) early in the Asian session today. Again, the movement was triggered by breaking news from Ukraine. The uptrend channel(4) can still be a rough reference for the current surge. If the price breaks the critical resistance at 1950, the next upside target will be 1965.

Pay close attention to the news from Ukraine, where geo-tension can always push the gold prices higher, reaching new highs. The surge has accelerated after the price broke the upper resistance of the uptrend channel(6). Expect the 1960-65 zone will generate resistance on the daily chart in S-T. If the price can clear all the sell in 1950-65, set the first upside target at 1980 or even higher, but before that, the trading range is still in 1915-50.

S-T Resistances:
1960-65
1950
1944-45

Market price: 1942

S-T Supports:
1940
1937
1930

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Gold pulled back from the 1-year high yesterday. The market opened at 1909. The price has kept climbing during the Asian and European sessions, all the way to 1974 until the price began to turn south at the US session. The price dropped to day-low 1877 before the day's end at 1903, down by USD 6 and fluctuated over USD 90 yesterday.

The market was driven by news yesterday. Because the movement was too fast too sharp, the movement would only stop at the next major resistance level after the price broke out from its previous resistance(1915/1930/1950/1965), which was the same as it was pulling back at the US session. If the market becomes volatile again today, trade the market "zone by zone", (1870/1880/1900/1915/1930/1950/1965/1975), just like yesterday. However, the price is now back to its previous level, just like nothing had happened. "Buy on rumor and sell on news" once the war has been confined to breakout and the Russian seems to be capable of finishing the war quickly, the market risk premium has slightly reduced, profit-taking actions may be triggered later on. Expect the price to trade within 1880-1930 before the US session. If the price fails to stay above 1908 before the weekend, gold may begin to consolidate next week.

After the movement yesterday, gold has finally crossed the 1900-08(2) resistance zone, moving higher along with the upper limit of the uptrend channel(3). If the price clears the 1900-08(2) resistance zone today, the upside target can be set at 1950 on the daily chart, but still, need to be 100% prepared for an M-T consolidation as the price move toward the bottom of the uptrend channel(3).

S-T Resistances:
1927
1920
1915

Market price: 1912

S-T Supports:
1910
1900-1897
1891

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