Bullish triangle pattern - waiting to be resolved

2021年9月9日

The bottom side of this triangle was confirmed multiple times now. Waiting for a test of the upper side and/or just a breakout.

The next target zone will be around 250-255 USX.

2021年9月14日

ノート

It seems like this triangle pattern will be solved to the downside. So a daily close at the current level (183.35 USX) would render this technical setup useless.

Nevertheless, I would stay away from shorting this commodity at the moment because it is against seasonality and other fundamental data.

2021年9月16日

トレード稼働中

Adjusted point B of the triangle. Still not broken - so technical it's all intact. Waiting for the move ...

2021年9月20日

ノート

Adjusted point D of the triangle. So it's now drawn to its extreme points. Price remains still inside the triangle but another adjustment won't be possible. Let's see which side the price breaks.

2021年9月21日

ノート

This is not a breakout but a fake-out. Depends of course how the day does end but it looks like a fake-out. So I'm not only fundamentally long in KC but also still technically.

2021年9月23日

ノート

Finally - coffee makes a move:

2021年9月27日

ノート

Valid triangle - looks bullish. It wouldn't wonder me if we achieve a new yearly high within this week ...

2021年10月12日

ノート

Coffee looks good now. ;)
Short-term target of around 225 USX should be achieved already within the next days. ATM I'm very confident that the coffee price reaches also the original target zone around 250 USX.

2021年10月25日

ノート

Looks like the coffee futures are forming the next bullish chart pattern (a bullish wedge) which could result in a continuation of the upwards move later this week:

2021年11月10日

ノート

One triangle follows the next one ...

2021年11月15日

ノート

Alright, 225 USX has been reached, and it doesn't look toppy, nor does the seasonality implies a change of price direction. So the next target is 257 USX. If not this month then it will be reached in December properly.

2021年12月3日

ノート

So the coffee futures are consolidating in the next symmetric triangle. As always - it's possible that this triangle gets resolved to the upside OR to the downside. According to the technical market structure and the fundamental data, it is much more likely that this triangle gets resolved to the upside.

Nevertheless, a correction to the downside, reaching 233 USX, is possible and does not destroy the bullish outlook at all.

2021年12月12日

ノート

One fake out to the upside - now a test of the bottom side. If the bottom breaks, it's a bearish signal. Despite the fact that IMO fundamentally we've got some room to the upside.

2021年12月22日

ノート

Could look promising, but we need honestly still another touch of the bottom line of this bullish wedge that I could call it valid. Perhaps the upper line needs to be adjusted as well. We'll see. According to fundamentals, I'm still bullish - these are only the technical things ...

2021年12月30日

ノート

I've readjusted the bullish wedge pattern and it seems to be valid now. It gives a bullish outlook on the price in 2022. I expect in January 2022 another pump in the coffee price in the direction of 260 USX.
Have a good New Year's Eve and a Happy New Year - we see us all in 2022! ;)

2022年1月4日

ノート

If 225 USX cannot be broken to the downside, I see a continuation in the bullish trend in coffee:

2022年1月11日

ノート

The next little consolidation pattern is forming before take-off:

2022年2月3日

ノート

Finally - the signs are on continuation of the bullish trend again:

2022年2月28日

手動でトレードを終了しました

Closed manually and completely. It could be that the price will rise until summer but for now I expect rather a correction and sometimes it's good to log in your profits. ;)