Litecoin (LTCUSD) bottom or gap

2019年1月16日

Some thoughts on LTC, as a sustained long term ALT, which is often claimed to be a directional crypto market leader.

The logarithmic chart looks like having a huge unreasonable technical gap area, opened by 2017 spring to top price finding, to now be filled by fear, panic and the expectation of a round market cycle.

Lets get some tags for playing potential re-long entries (if one may wonder why this idea NOT strategizes short). What levels do we have, and how to see them:
$9 - Was the maximum of the high test, that ended the last Litecoin's bear market > Not too significant for trading a long entry, as this marks no significant reaction area at all in all lifetime of Litecoin.
$9_$6 Believers area: Considering the pure chart and price action, this area speculates LTC to behaving like big brother BTC with no harm in its major long term belief (see most below: Counterpart idea).
$6 - The $6 area spanned up from $5.5 has definitely more significance, as it acted as LPS (last point of supply) before the final sell off through all barriers began at the end of 2014 during the last bear market, and also acted as the major upward resistance in the following long term consolidation period - AND, with that major significance, was never re-tested since the latest bull market lift of in March-17.
$6_$4 Re-accumulation area: Has technically the highest significance for acting as a bottoming area for this Litecoin bear market, to being seen as the new S/R flip line from last bull into this bear market.

But:
As already noted, Litecoin is not BTC. So it does not own the same massive lead in major and common believe, that could undoubtedly lift it up again from a last bull market's top (like Bitcoin is SUPPOSED to do, if no major harm to the base technology is incoming). LTC is an ALT, and people use ALTs for either accumulating BTC or exiting for USD, but definitely less for HODL. So there's:
$4.1 - The long term re-accumulation support/resistance (S/R) flip mean, the price the majority of traders considered to be the new price of 1 Litecoin, before new speculation began. So, taking out the pure technicals above, this can potentially be tested for the recent bull market's sell-off break even (no one left from previous consolidation, who wants to sell lower/lose money - except: margin liquidation rounds not implied).
$4_$2 Pain area: Assuming one wants to long strong on a "bottom-knife", strong margin long-liquidation dips could shake you out the same-like(!) drops from $370 down to $22.
$3 - Is the re-accumulation area's stair step 1 in mid of 2015, rebuilding on Litecoins 2013 market resistance, and confirming support on several occasions during 2016 consolidation. But: the market is different now, so the relevance of this line has ended latest with the break of Litecoin's parabolic advance in Jan-18.
$2_$1.65 Gambling area: Anything below $2 is gambling field to try to catch spikes. It has some credence from the last bear market's bottom on the M(monthly) chart opens and closes. Anyways, the pure technical view though suggests us a dip right into this area, when we consider what you may see as an optical illusion - the most recent Nov-18 drop price-range on re-increased volume has the same total price length as the anticipated follow-through drop, when seeing the last two months price action as a perfect technical bear flag building.

Counterpart to my idea:
If we forget about the massive spring-17 pump from $4 to $30 to be a too short timed bull accumulation, then we're sitting at the Litecoin's last bullmarket top area, with at least some remarkable volume increase of coins exchanging hands here again. If we from now see Litecoin doing an extended phase of consolidation here (leaving out liquidation spikes shorter than the Daily), at least for half a year, then I will update this idea considering LTC bottoming and building the new sustained reaccumulation area here.