Litecoin Targeting Weekly Resistance

2023年5月13日

Tend Bullish

Litecoin price has a weak spot that could implode with LTC diving 15%


The network has gained more than 300,000 new addresses in the first week of May.
The next Litecoin halving is scheduled for August 12 tentatively, and such events have been synonymous with price rises.


Litecoin price, despite having a major event coming up in about three months, is still mostly following the broader market cues. However, the altcoin’s investors have been growing bullish by the day, and the same is visible in their participation, which is currently far higher than the average.


In the first week of May, the Litecoin network noted the addition of nearly 300,000 new addresses that hold some amount of LTC. This is a nearly 300% jump from the average weekly rate, as throughout the last month, the network only added a total of 300,000 addresses, bringing the weekly average to 75,000.


The total addresses holding a balance now stand at 7.56 million, and the possibility of the same rising further is high. This is because the “silver to Bitcoin’s gold” is set to go through its third halving event, wherein the reward for validating a block will be slashed by 50% from 12.5 LTC to 6.25 LTC.

These events have been synonymous with price rises, as observed in the past in August 2015 and August 2019. Thus by the looks of it, crypto investors are preparing to bank on this potential and make profits by joining the network.

This could prove to be bullish for the price action as well, as investors could likely accumulate further, given Litecoin price is low right now. As it is, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing the oversold zone, below 30.0. A move into the zone followed by an exit would confirm a reversal in trend, triggering a recovery rally.

If this situation plays out over the next couple of days, Litecoin price might be in for a rally.

2023年5月21日

ノート

Litecoin Closes the Week Up 14% as Halving Expectation Gets Priced in

2023年5月22日

ノート

Monday happens nothing
tuesday
pmi important also for eurousd if euro gets stronger nasdaq and s+p500 and gold get stronger too
pmi for dollar at 9:45 watch closely and wait how the algos trade. Dont go immediately in,just be patient
also manufacturing data will be published. Important


Until the dat come out, the price moves higher or lower above/below the opening price ,but suddenly comes back to the opening level. No good idea to trade.


Wednesday 2p.m.: FOMC meeting, but this meeting is FOMC minute. High impact, but not so much as the real FOMC meeting,
10 a.m. Yellen will speak,

Thurseday: GDP,pending homesales,unemployment

Friday: Big Day,PCE coming out, also Durable goods
also consumer sentiments and inflation expectations.

Friday will be a very busy day. Watch for those data points.

2023年5月22日

ノート

This week:

s+p500
4193 to 4180 should be filled. I am looking bearish this week until sp500 goes to around 4160.
There I will be prepared for a buy, if volume sinks, and we have a bullish signal. The volume has to be increase, while the price gos up again.
If not so, it could mean, that important news, what the public does not know will arrive soon.In this case I willstay out.
If we have buy presure, the target will be 4180, we hold above it, we go then to 4223, and then 4277, cuz there no resistance


Nasdaq US100
Big LVN zone 13563-13606 and a single close at 13689 and 13750

I am expecting that coming down and correction.No! I want to have this correction, before US100 begins a big buy pressure at this level and rise higher.
My bullish target will be then 13952,13999,14218 and 14298


There we have nearly no resistances

In case US100 falls below 13606,
it nears of 13518 but latestly 13350. There are my next Bulls waiting to welcome the bears and support the strong Buy pressure.


Bitcoin.Possibly will come down to 2395 area before the Buying pressure begins.
It has to go above 27700. If we start sideways and the volume reducing, I will take the first Profits, and wait for a second ,but powerfull bullish run.
Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful


Gold: we had very strong impulse from 1618 to 1973

Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful

The profit taking on the Highs put back Gold in a correction mode,
I am expecting Gold will come down to 1900-1936 (62%Fib.) and then we attack 2150, and then 2212.5

Important is: Gold must Close this week above 1900-1920.

If it doesn´t and falls below this level, then we will see 1840 agin. It will be a ull trend, ,but it will need longer to climb higher.

If we close above 1920 this Friday, then possibly in the next 14 Days Gold will RISE HIGHER...

2023年5月22日

ノート

Friday26.May is the Big Day of this week
US Stocks Lack Direction as Investors Eye Debt Ceiling and Inflation report

the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rebounded from early losses to trade slightly higher at 3.7%, the highest since mid-March, as traders assess the monetary policy outlook and the debt ceiling impasse in the US. On Monday, Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell mentioned that because of stress in the banking sector, it might be unnecessary to further raise rates to curb inflation. The likelihood of a pause in the rate hike cycle has been fluctuating, but currently, traders are assigning a 78% probability that the Fed will maintain the rates steady in June. Simultaneously, President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday to continue negotiations regarding the debt ceiling. This follows an unsuccessful meeting between key negotiators on Friday.

US stocks traded around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. Meanwhile, traders continue to follow comments from several Fed officials: Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell nearly 4% after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded its stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks were also under pressure after the firm has been fined by European regulators.

US futures were around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell more than 4% in premarket trading after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded the company’s stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks lost nearly 1% after the firm has been fined a record €1.2 billion by European privacy regulators.

2023年5月22日

ノート

Litecoin (LTC) Shows Biggest Growth in Last 12 Years
Litecoin, a legacy cryptocurrency known for its stability, is exhibiting one of its most significant growth spurts in its nearly 12-year history, primarily due to the introduction of the LTC-20 standard and the anticipation of an approaching halving event. Recently, Litecoin has seen a surge in activity. According to on-chain data, the number of transactions on the network has skyrocketed by 400% in a short period. This surge indicates a growing number of users, and applications are embracing the Litecoin blockchain, attributing to its recent success.

2023年5月22日

ノート

DOGE AND Litecoin Hit New Daily Transaction Volume Thanks To Ordinals, Bulls Keen On Massive Run In Q2 2023

Dogecoin and Litecoin recorded surging daily transaction volumes for the third consecutive week after marking their Ordinal debuts.
DOGE hit a daily volume of 1.2 million transactions, while LTC hit 584,000, setting a new all-time high for both networks.
Dogecoin bulls are speculating a stellar finish to the year at $0.1, but that remains a long shot even with the integration of Ordinals.
Popular among Bitcoin (BTC) users as Ordinals, Dogecoin (DOGE) users have copied the architecture to create Doginals, which has the community all excited with few dissenting voices.

The introduction of Ordinals to Dogecoin and Litecoin has led to surging daily volumes for the third consecutive week. On May 18, transaction volumes on Dogecoin hit a new daily record of 1.2 million, according to data from BitinfoCharts.

Litecoin, on the other hand, has also recorded a volume pump to 584,000 transactions across a 24-hour time frame. Ordinals debuted on Litecoin after Twitter user Indigo Nakamoto promised 5 LTC to anyone who ports the Ordinals to the Litecoin network.

On Feb 19, developer Anthony Guerrero successfully created the Litecoin protocol; similarly, Dogecoin followed suit. Increased network activity began after both networks introduced LRC 20 and DRC-20 standard tokens, respectively, enabling users to create meme coins and other “assets” on both networks.

DOGE derived inspiration from Ordinals to create what they term Doginals, driving up network activity just as it did on Bitcoin. Due to surging network activity, gas fees on Bitcoin hit highs not recorded in years, leading to congestion of the mempool.


Before now, daily DOGE transactions averaged between 20,000-25,000 before spiking to 700,000 and now setting a new record above 1 million transactions.

DOGE bulls are ready to pounce
The meme coin started the year recovering from losses recorded in 2022 and is still shy from its all-time high of 2021. Currently exchanging hands at $0.0736, the coin has gained 6.69% this year and is down by 13% from its price in May last year. Despite this slow growth, the community has moved around Doginals with bulls looking to ignite a run hinged on the Ordinal copycat.

2023年5月25日

ノート

Selling Pressure,Weakenning of UsDollar, thats good for Euro. Strong Euro is GOOD,no VERY GOOD for SP500;NASDAQ;DOW JONES; GOLD;BITCOIN;CRYPTOS: Everything against Dollar.

Look also my NVIDIA Forecast Chart performed: Nailed it! Weak US DOllar also good for Tech Stocks, Bio Pharma and Tech have Highly positive correltions with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and vice versa. NVIDIA : Top Performer

Friday is the Big Day of the Week: aND IT WILL BE VERY BUISY. RGHT AFTER THE bELL PMI and Inflation DATA!

2023年5月26日

ノート

Market UpDATES:
NASDQ100 US100 and Indices Sky Rocketing after FED pivot reates cooling
Nasdaq breaking 14055 easily as forecasted in my analysis : Next Target 14350
NVIDAI Sky ROCKETING(Watch als my other Forecasts USD/US100/USDJPY/GOLD/EURO- Related Markets)
Godl Found More Buyers on support.More Bullish Delat coming in nEXT TO 2000USD)
Medium-term price action on the daily chart exhibits scope to extend losses. The longer-term ascending channel is interesting (drawn from $1,641 and $1,959). Note that price action FAILED to touch gloves with the upper boundary in recent trading, pencilling in highs just ahead of the all-time high of $2,075.
Investment Sentiment rising higher from Lows:More Bulls
The Key Fed Inflation Rate Is Cooling At Pivotal Time For The S&P 500
EURO/USD Taking Profits +More Bulls Accumulation and Buying Pressure /Support 1,4075

2023年5月28日

ノート

Bitcoin price climbs above $26,800 as traders eye resistance at $27,600

The durable goods number, personal spending, and the PCE inflation measures were all broadly above expectations

2023年5月29日

ノート

profit taking. trend bullish,momentum down

2023年5月30日

ノート

Markets steady ahead of final push on the debt deal

After long weekends in many parts of the world, FX markets are returning to some progress on the US debt ceiling. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached a two-year deal. That deal will be assessed by the House Rules Committee today and, if approved, will likely go to a vote in the House tomorrow. Both Democrat and Republican leaders feel they have the votes to get the deal through Congress – although at times like these, there may be a few holdout politicians who like their day in the sun.

2023年5月31日

ノート

Biden and House Speaker McCarthy reached an agreement on Saturday and the House vote is expected to take place on Wednesday. However, several Republicans have stated that they will not vote in favor of it. Most Ai stocks were still up after Nvidia rose as much as 4% earlier in the session, briefly hitting a $1 trillion market cap. Tesla also held gains after Elon Musk told Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang that he was willing to expand business in the country. On the other hand, energy stocks were among the worst performers dragged down by a 4% decline in oil prices.

2023年6月1日

ノート

The Dow Jones cut early losses to trade around 50 points higher while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq extended gains to add about 0.5% each, as traders focus on the monetary policy outlook. Fresh data for unit labour costs, the ISM PMI and comments from some Fed officials reinforced bets the Fed will pause the tightening cycle this month. As a result, Treasury yields fell and tech shares got a boost. On the other hand, stocks of Salesforce fell nearly 5% after the company reported higher capital expenses than expected. Meanwhile, traders welcomed the passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 by a vote of 314-117 on the House of Representatives. The bill is now headed to the Senate and is expected to be approved before the June 5th default deadline.
The dollar index fell below 103.9 on Thursday, the lowest in nearly a week, as fresh data and comments from some Fed officials raised bets the central bank will pause the tightening cycle when it meets in about two weeks. Unit labour costs rose less than expected in Q1 and the slump in productivity was revised lower, while the ISM PMI showed the manufacturing sector contracted for a 7th month. On the other hand, initial jobless claims and the ADP report beat forecasts. Also, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggested the central bank would skip a rate hike in the next meeting. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives approved the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 by a vote of 314-117 on Wednesday evening. The bill is now headed to the Senate and is expected to be approved before the June 5th default deadline.

2023年6月3日

ノート

Litecoin price stands less than 10% away from charting new 2023 highs

Litecoin price is close to breaching the barrier at the $102 mark.
Over the last 48 hours, transactions in losses have increased, indicating a potential buying signal.
A chunk of the supply has moved from the whales to investors over the last month as investors accumulate ahead of the upcoming halving.

2023年6月6日

ノート

The Fed meets next week and expectations of another rate increase are rising, particularly given the growing hopes the U.S. economy is headed for a 'soft landing' after Congress's approval last week of a debt ceiling deal that averts U.S. default.

The Fed enters its traditional blackout period this week, but there is more data to digest, including the ISM services PMI later Monday, which is expected to point to a still solid rate of expansion.

2023年6月8日

ノート

DXY Falls after Weekly Claims

The dollar index dropped to as low as 103.58 on Thursday after higher-than-anticipated weekly claims reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will temporarily halt its cycle of interest rate increases before resuming them in July, but unexpected rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike already next week. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve's decision could be influenced by the release of May's consumer inflation data, scheduled for a day before the central bank's meeting, which is projected to indicate a 0.3% increase in prices.

Initial Jobless Claims Jump to 2021-Highs
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits jumped to 261K in the week ended June 3rd 2023, the highest figure since October 2021, and above market forecasts of 235K. Figures for the previous week were revised slightly higher to 233K from an initial 232K. It marks a third consecutive week of increases in the number of initial jobless claims, in a sign the labour market strenght may be fading. The 4-week moving average which removes week-to-week volatility was 237.25K, an increase of 7.5K from the previous week. Based on unadjusted data, the largest increases in initial claims were in Ohio (6.345K), California (5.173K), and Minnesota (2.746K), while the largest decreases were in Connecticut (-2.35K) and NY (-1.243K). Meanwhile, continuing claims fell to 1757K from 1794K, below forecasts of 1800K.

2023年6月8日

ノート

US Wholesale Inventories Fall for 2nd Month

Wholesale inventories in the US decreased 0.1% month-over-month in April 2023, less than earlier estimates of a 0.2% fall and following a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in March. Inventories fell for nondurables (-1.2% vs -0.5% in March), mostly drugs (-0.8%), apparel (-2.3%), and farm products (-7.1%). On the other hand stocks for durable goods rose 0.6% (vs a flat reading in March). Compared to a year earlier, wholesale inventories jumped 6.3%.

2023年6月11日

ノート

Analyzing the daily price chart of Litecoin, LTC’s price has witnessed a bearish rally today as bears successfully pulled the price below $85. As LTC/USD continues to decline, it creates concerns of a bearish downturn as it tumbles near the support line at $75. The 24-hour volume has made a surge today as it touched $34.43 million, showing a spike in long liquidation. LTC price is currently trading at $77.2, decreasing over 13% in the last 24 hours.

2023年6月11日

ノート

t will be a busy week in the US, with the Fed interest rate decision, inflation rate, retail sales, and Michigan consumer sentiment taking the central stage. Investors will closely follow the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan monetary policy meetings. Additionally, China will be releasing industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment data, while India will announce its inflation rate and industrial production figures. Other important releases include Germany's ZEW Business Confidence, UK's trade balance and GDP for April, and Australia's consumer and business confidence as well as jobless rate.

2023年6月11日

ノート

ADA, MATIC, SOL face the music as Robinhood delists tokens
Hours after Robinhood delisted ADA, MATIC, and SOL, the price action of the tokens was not what participants would have hoped for.

Ethereum continues to dominate the crypto sector, with increased TVL and notable growth on DEXs. NFT sector however, does not witness the same level of progress.

Should Shiba Inu traders be worried as Shibarium launch date remains uncertain

Solana prices dive 42% within a week, will there be a quick recovery
Solana nears an important resistance
Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility declined rapidly indicating the anticipation of low fluctuations of price from the options market.

2023年6月12日

ノート

Asian Stock Market: Bulls and bears jostle at monthly top ahead of central bank decisions
Asia-Pacific shares grind near one-month highs amid cautious mood.
Softer Japan inflation, hopes of no PBOC rate hike underpin mildly positive risk appetite.
Holidays in Australia, light calendar elsewhere join pre-Fed anxiety to limit market moves.

Gold price is looking to extend Friday’s pullback from five-day highs of $1,973 on Monday. Despite the retreat, Gold price maintains its last week’s range, as investors turn cautious ahead of a big week, with eyes on the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Federal Reserve policy announcements

USD/JPY strengthens beyond mid-139.00s on modest USD uptick, lacks bullish conviction

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bounces off 200-SMA but recovery remains elusive below 0.9100

GBPUSD SHORT on hawkish FED
SHORT

DAX40 Will Rise much more Higher
LONG

2023年6月12日

ノート

US Fed, BOJ, ECB Are Set to Announce Policies This Week

2023年6月12日

ノート

US Stocks Rise Ahead Inflation, Fed
The Dow Jones rose 20 points on Monday, the S&P 500 was up 0.3% and the Nasdaq 0.4% as investors are hopeful that inflationary pressures would show further signs of easing, supporting the case for a pause in the Fed’s interest rate hikes this week. The US inflation rate is forecasted to fall 4.1% in May, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.9% in April while the core gauge may decelerate to 5.2% from 5.5%. Most market participants expect the US central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at the current levels but there is a 30% chance of a rate hike depending on the CPI reading and after surprise moves in Australia and Canada last week. Among single stocks, Nasdaq tumbled 10% after the exchange operator said it agreed to acquire Adenza. Oracle was up nearly 4% ahead of earnings results after the market close
Crude Short oil make another bearish attempt
SHORT

BITCOIN WILL RISE HIGHER
LONG

Bank of Japan's Dovish Line Pushes Yen Down
LONG

GOLD STRONG BUY , short term correction coming soon
LONG

USD/CAD continues to move higher amid a broad sell-off in commod
LONG

USDCHF BEARISH Meets monthly Low and Support
SHORT

US100 Long U.S. Debt Deal Optimism Boosts Sentiment
LONG

2023年6月12日

ノート

CURRENCYCOM:US100 long
nasdaq100 us100 we go to 15200 where the profit taking and reveras begins US100 Long Rises Higher to 15200zone,the possible correction

2023年6月13日

ノート

US Dollar Index: DXY fades recovery below 104.00 on downbeat Fed bets, US inflation eyed
US Dollar Index struggles to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce off three-week low, snaps two-day winning streak.
Markets remain nearly sure of witnessing no rate hike from Fed in June but concerns about July stay dicey.
Bond market moves, challenges to sentiment prod DXY bears ahead of the key US CPI.
Core CPI will be closely observed as high inflation can allow FOMC to remain hawkish despite no rate hike decision.
US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured around 103.60 as it fades the previous two-day winning streak on Tuesday as the key US inflation data looms. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies rose in the last two consecutive days amid the market’s positioning for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pause to the rate hike trajectory. However, the recently mixed concerns about the US central bank’s future moves join the challenges to the sentiment to prod the DXY buyers ahead of an important data point for the markets.

It’s worth noting that a study from the San Francisco Fed about the correlation between wage growth and inflation could be cited as the reason for the US central bank to remain less hawkish, which in turn weighs on the DXY, apart from the pre-data anxiety. The survey concluded that wage growth has a very small impact on inflation, which in turn raises doubts about the central bankers’ emphasis on wage cost numbers as a source of information to gauge inflation pressure.
Talking about the latest challenges to sentiment, a trade dispute is developing after the US expands its ban on imports from Xinjiang. China vows to protect China firms against any US sanctions, per Reuters. Recently, Bloomberg released prepared remarks of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s scheduled Testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee as she said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) serve as important counterweights to nontransparent, unsustainable lending from others, like China.
Additionally, the increase in the bets favoring the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.25% rate hike in July also prod optimism and put a floor under the US Dollar Index. It should be noted that the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests nearly limited scope for the US central bank to act on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Looking ahead, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May will be in the spotlight as the Fed decision looms on Wednesday. That said, the market forecasts of witnessing no change in the Core CPI MoM figure of 0.4% gain major attention as softer figures could push back the July rate hike concerns and may not allow the Fed to sound hawkish, which in turn can drown the US Dollar.

2023年6月14日

ノート

US Dollar Index: DXY licks US inflation-inflicted wounds at three-week low above 103.00 on Fed day

US Dollar Index grinds near the lowest levels in three weeks after snapping two-day winning streak.
US inflation data bolsters market’s bets on Fed’s status quo and weigh on the DXY despite upbeat yields.
Cautious mood ahead of the FOMC announcements put a floor under the US Dollar price.
Expectations of witnessing a hawkish halt from US central bank highlight qualitative updates from the Fed.
US Dollar Index (DXY) steadies above 103.00, after bouncing off a three-week low, as markets brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) announcements on Wednesday. The greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies slumped the most in a week, to the lowest levels since May 22, after the US inflation data fuelled speculations of the US central bank’s halt to the rate hike trajectory present in the last 10 monetary policy meetings.

As per the latest US inflation data for May, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) drops more-than-expected and prior releases to 0.1% MoM and 4.0% YoY. However, the Core CPI, known as the CPI ex Food & Energy, matches 0.4% monthly and 5.3% yearly forecasts. It’s worth noting that the US headline CPI dropped to the lowest since March 2021 and hence justifies the market’s expectations of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish halt, which in turn should have weighed on the US Dollar.
Following the data, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests more than a 90% chance of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) no rate hike during today’s monetary policy meeting, versus around 75% chance before that.

It’s worth noting, however, that the ex-Fed Officials have been pushing for a hawkish halt to the rate hikes and prods the DXY bears. On Tuesday, Former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President Robert Kaplan said that he would support a "hawkish pause" at this week's meeting while also adding that he would “leave the question of a July hike open.” Previously, Ex-Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren tweeted, “Expect a hawkish skip this week.”

As a result, Wall Street benchmarks rose for the second consecutive day but the US Treasury bond yields remain firmer. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to a 13-day high of 3.83% whereas the two-year counterpart poked the highest levels in three months with 4.70% mark before easing to 4.67% in the last hours.

Looking ahead, the pre-Fed sentiment may prod the DXY, as well as allow the greenback’s gauge to pare recent losses. However, the traders will pay attention to the US central bank’s economic forecasts, dot-plot and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for clear directions afterward, as the rate hike pause is almost given.

2023年6月16日

ノート

European equity markets were set for a positive open on Friday, tracking global peers higher amid bets that US interest rates could be nearing their peak as the American economy loses momentum and after the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign in June. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank opted to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points, with ECB President Christine Lagarde saying ‘we are not thinking about pausing.” Investors now look ahead to final euro zone inflation figures and wage growth data for further clues on the economy and future monetary policy. DAX futures jumped 0.9%, Stoxx 600 futures gained 0.5% and FTSE 100 futures edged up 0.2% in premarket trade.

2023年6月18日

ノート

The Dow finished more than 100 points below the flatline on Friday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost nearly 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, as investors continued to assess the outlook of monetary policy for the Fed amid a massive options expiration at the second 2023’s quadruple witching date. Among stocks, Microsoft fell 1.7% and Micron Technology dropped 1.7%. Conversely, Virgin Galactic surged 16.3% on plans for commercial space tourism. Tesla added 1.8% after hitting a 37-week high during the session and Adobe gained 0.8% with positive earnings and guidance. On the week, the Dow Jones added 0.9%, marking a three-week winning streak despite the Fed's warning of future rate hikes. The S&P 500 gained 2.2%, its fifth consecutive weekly gain, the longest since November 2021, rising 2.2%. The Nasdaq was up 2.7% for an eighth straight positive week. Markets will be closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday.

2023年6月18日

ノート

BTC Bears Target Sub-$26,000 on SEC v Binance and Ripple Battles

BTC was flat this morning, with regulatory uncertainty stemming from the SEC lawsuits against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase testing buyer appetite.


The market structure and momentum of Bitcoin was bearish, but its bounce back above 26k gave bears some food for thought.


Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 turned negative over May. This meant that the index has an overall bullish outlook, but Bitcoin has trended in the opposite direction in recent weeks. The increasing hostility from regulatory bodies in the United States has played a part in BTC’s misfortunes on the price chart.



There was an argument to be made that Bitcoin showed some signs of recovery. Yet, an analysis of the price action showed that the bias remained in favor of the sellers. On the other hand, if Bitcoin climbs to 28k, it could signal an uptrend.


Can the bulls drive Bitcoin past 27.4k next?


The market structure of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe was bearish. The structure shifted on 21 April when BTC dipped below a recent higher low. Since then, the price has trended lower on the chart.

Moreover, the trading volume has been extremely low from April onward, compared to the volume seen in February and March. This was reflected on the OBV as well, which only went slightly lower in May in contrast to the rapid gains it posted in mid-March.

The Fibonacci levels based on the recent leg down show that Bitcoin was likely headed toward 24.8k. The 61.8% extension level at 23.3k was also a target it presented. The price action showed that the 24.2k-24.4k region could serve as strong support. Beneath that, the 22.4k and 21.5k levels were important.

To signal a bullish shift in the structure, Bitcoin prices must rise back above the recent lower high at 27.4k. Yet, an uptrend would not be established there, as BTC would need to form a higher low and continue higher. Cautious investors can wait for this turn of events before looking to buy.


On Saturday, BTC extended the winning streak to three sessions, gaining 0.67% to end the day at $26,535.
SEC v Binance news delivered a breakout morning session before profit-taking left BTC with modest gains.
The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $27,000.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.67%. Following a 2.92% rally on Friday, BTC ended the day at $26,535. Significantly, BTC enjoyed its first three-day winning streak since May.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early afternoon low of $26,202. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,523, BTC rose to a late morning high of $26,857. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,882, BTC eased back to sub-$26,500 and a range-bound afternoon session.

SEC v Binance News Delivered Brief Relief
On Saturday, news of Binance striking a deal to address the SEC’s motion to freeze Binance US assets supported a breakout morning.

Binance, Binance US, and the SEC agreed on a deal restricting access to customer funds to Binance US employees. The agreement prevents Binance Holdings staff from having access to private keys for US wallets.

The SEC filed a motion to freeze the assets of Binance US shortly after filing charges against Binance, Binance US, and Binance CEO CZ.

On Saturday, the US Court signed off on the deal, which allows Binance to repatriate all US customer funds and private keys onshore to nullify the motion to freeze.

While the news was positive, Binance US and Binance face charges that could drag on and further impact the US digital asset space.

Uncertainty toward the SEC v Ripple case remains another headwind, with optimism of a Ripple win fading after the release of the Hinman speech-related docs.

The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators to provide direction. The lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto market news wires.

SEC activity remains the focal point, with SEC v Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news likely to move the dial.

We also expect market sensitivity to lawmaker chatter. US lawmakers have remained silent on the William Hinman speech-related documents and the SEC charges against Binance and Coinbase.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.05% to $26,523. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,551 before falling to a low of $26,410.


BTC Technical Indicators
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA ($26,269). The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A move through the 200-day EMA ($26,654) would support a breakout from R1 ($26,861) to target R2 ($27,186). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($26,269) and S1 ($26,206) would bring the 50-day EMA ($26,059) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

Resistance & Support Levels

R1 – $ 26,861 S1 – $ 26,206
R2 – $ 27,186 S2 – $ 25,876
R3 – $ 27,841 S3 – $ 25,221
BTC needs to move through the $26,531 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,861 and $27,500. A move through the Saturday high of $26,857 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,186 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,841.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,206 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,876. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,221.

2023年6月19日

ノート

Gold long going to above 2050
LONG


Gold Price Analysis: Testing Support Levels Amidst Consolidation and Breakout Attempts

Technical analysis reveals a retracement in gold, testing key support zones and indicating a healthy consolidation phase before an expected continuation of the uptrend.



Gold, FX Empire
Gold Forecast Video for 19.06.23 by Bruce Powers
Gold rises to a three-day high of 1,986 on Friday before pulling back. It attempted to breakout above the top boundary trendline of a small symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern but is now on track to close below it and within the consolidation range.

Attempting to Break Up yet Remains in Consolidation Range
So far, Thursday’s test of the 100-Day EMA with a day’s low of 1,925 has held up but further signs of strength are needed. Gold briefly dropped below the 100-Day line earlier in the session on Thursday but managed to close strong, back above it and near the high of the day. The 100-Day EMA is now at 1,940.

Further Signs of Strength are Needed
Further signs of strength are needed to indicate whether yesterday’s low completes the retracement or further tests will occur. This week’s candlestick pattern is set to close as a bullish doji hammer. Next week an upside breakout signal will occur on a move above the high at 1,971, and the breakout is confirmed on a daily close above that high. Following a move above that high the next weekly resistance levels are 1,973, 1,983, and 1,985. A subsequent daily close above each price level will confirm strength, otherwise some resistance might be seen again around those levels.

If Lows Tested Again
If lower prices occur before a continuation higher the two potential support zones are around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1,912, followed by the 200-Day EMA at 1,894. The 200-Day EMA was tested as support with a double bottom in the first quarter of this year price reversed higher from there.

Uptrend Intact
The current retracement in gold is a test of support around previous high swing high of 1,960 from early-February. So far, the retracement is normal and healthy for the uptrend. Consolidation has been occurring at the 50% retracement area as well as the 100-Day EMA. Notice that there is a greater distance between the 100-Day EMA and 200-Day than what was seen in February. It reflects an improving trend. Once this retracement is complete, all signs are that gold should continue higher.


Gold held above $1,950 an ounce on Friday after gaining 0.7% in the previous session, benefiting mainly from the dollar’s weakness as the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign at a time other major central banks are still raising interest rates. Still, the metal remains close to three-month lows as the Fed hinted at two more quarter-point rate increases this year, while the European Central Bank delivered another 25 basis point rate hike on Thursday and signaled further tightening. The Bank of England is also set to raise rates again at its June policy meeting, a month marked by surprise rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China lowered key short-term interest rates this week for the first time in ten months, while the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy on Friday.



Daily bullish
4H Bullish
34min Bullish

Gold is mostly traded on the OTC London market, the US futures market (COMEX) and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). The standard future contract is 100 troy ounces. Gold is an attractive investment during periods of political and economic uncertainty. Half of the gold consumption in the world is in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry. The biggest producers of gold are China, Australia, United States, South Africa, Russia, Peru and Indonesia. The biggest consumers of gold jewelry are India, China, United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia and UAE. The gold prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments. Our gold prices are intended to provide you with a reference only, rather than as a basis for making trading decisions. Trading Economics does not verify any data and disclaims any obligation to do so.

2023年6月20日

ノート

4H bearish
2H bullish

Daily bullish
weekly bullish
Litecoin’s total number of accounts surpassed that of Ethereum as the former crossed the 200 million mark recently.
Litecoin [LTC] has outperformed Ethereum [ETH] in a key metric, as per Glassnode. Notably, LTC’s total addresses reached 200.7 million at press time,while ETH’s figure stood at 181 million, which gave the former a lead of over 20 million addresses.

LTC’s daily chart pointed out quite a few bullish market indicators, suggesting a price hike in the coming days. For instance, LTC’s MACD displayed the possibility of a bullish crossover. Litecoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) also registered an uptick.Money Flow Index (MFI) also followed the same trend, increasing the chances of a northbound price movement in the coming days.

2023年6月28日

ノート

Fed Chair. Powell reiterated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking that interest rates will rise further and that he wouldn’t take moving in consecutive meetings off the table at all, but noted that a recession in the US is not the most likely case. Nvidia was down by over 2% and Advanced Micro Devices by 1% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of artificial intelligence chips to China. The Fed is also due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks, and more details on Basel III Endgame and changes to bank supervision will be in the spotlight.
The Dow Jones was down over 100 points and the S&P 500 dipped by 0.1% on Wednesday afternoon, on the prospect of further interest rate hikes following the Federal Reserve's chair Powell Speech at the ECB Forum. He said he does not see inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target any time soon. He reiterated that interest rates will rise further and did not rule out a boost in the cost of borrowing at the next policy meeting scheduled for the end of July. Meantime, the Nasdaq was up 0.2% powered by megacap momentum stocks. Among stocks, shares of Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were down by 2% and 1%, respectively, after the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of AI chips to China. Intel, Applied Materials and Qualcomm fell more than 2% each. On the other hand, Apple hit an all-time high of $189.8 during the session, while shares of Tesla and Alphabet advanced 1.4% and 2.5%. The Fed is due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks.

2023年6月29日

ノート

The US economy grew by an annualized 2% on quarter in Q1 2023, well above 1.3% in the second estimate, and forecasts of 1.4%. The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports were revised down.

2023年7月11日

ノート

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down for 2nd Session

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.

2023年7月14日

ノート

The greenback is approaching a make-or-break moment — at least as far as a closely watched technical indicator is concerned.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index has now surrendered more than 61.8% of its gains since May 2021, bringing it to one of the Fibonacci retracement levels popular among chart watchers. They tend to keep a close eye on these indicators to determine whether or not trends will extend or reverse.

What happens next is therefore crucial.

If the index remains below this point over the coming sessions, it would be a strong signal to traders that the currency’s losses are the beginning of a new longer-term downtrend, and not just an aberration.

The latest bout of weakness comes as the market now sees an end to a tightening spree that Federal Reserve officials begun communicating more than two years ago. The prospect is narrowing interest-rate differentials with other major currencies and weighing on the dollar.

This week, it dropped to the weakest level against euro and pound since early 2022. It’s even falling out of favor against the yen — where rates are still negative — with the cross falling to a two-month low.

The bearish signal seen in the chart of the Bloomberg Dollar Index could be soon validated elsewhere too. The ICE Dollar Index — a popular alternative to the BBDXY — stands just 0.6% higher than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a rally that kicked off in January 2021.

To be sure, options paint a more mixed picture. While long-term bets are supportive of the US currency’s prospects, sentiment over a one-month sentiment has reached its least bullish level since September 2020.

2023年7月22日

ノート

trade is open

2023年7月23日

ノート

Trade is open