LTC/USD: Hindsight and Foresight

2018年10月9日

Disclaimer and background: This is not financial advice, and I have never received training sufficient to give financial advice. For me, this is a hobby. This is my first published idea. I am unsure whether I'll further publish ideas as trolling remains my primary pastime, which I've been slacking on. Follow me on Twitter @Teklologist.

Edited for grammar and formatting.

Foreword
I went Long with LTCUSD at $58 (dollar-cost-averaged) with ~18k for approx 310 LTC. I am considering buying another 5k - 10k worth if and when LTC closes above $61 on the 4H. The breakdown of BTCUSD is similar to what I've done here with LTC. Take a look for yourself, easy to see... in hindsight. Comments welcomed.

Hindsight TA
Uptrend wave 1-2-3-4-5 lengths (approximations):

• W1 = 77
  
• W2 = 62 (.81 x W1)
  
• W3 = 330 (4.25 x W1)
  
• W4 = 185 (.50 x W3)
  
• W5 = 122 (1.6 x W1)
  

Downtrend wave A-B-C lengths (approximations):

• WA = 200
  
• WB = 150 (.764 x WA)
  
• WC = 200 (1 x WA)
  

Foresight
The capital for the below target prices would originate from sell-offs of the DJI, IXIC, and SPX index funds. Extrapolation of our Hindsight TA yields:

• W1 = $275 - $290
  
• W2 = $43 - $46
  
• W3 = $412 - $439
  
• W4 = $227 - $242
  
• W5 = $455 - $485
  

2018年10月9日

ノート

Apologies (again). Above Foresight targets are incorrect because of a miscalculation with W2 (forgot to add bottom of new cycle, i.e., $47). Below are the corrected targets.

W1 = $275 - $290
W2 = $90 - $93
W3 = $457 - $484
W4 = $343 - $362
W5 = $571 - $605

2018年10月10日

ノート

Recently published idea with wave count analysis that corroborates this idea's validity.

2018年10月11日

ノート

I leveraged ~33 LTC for ~25K of VIBE at .00035 ETH/VIBE.

TP 1: .00042
TP 2: .00045
TP 3: .0005 (sell all)
Consider buying back if breaks and confirms above .0005. Uncertain timeframe, possibly within a day but more likely 3 - 6 days.

2018年10月12日

ノート

Bought plenty more LTC @ $50.9. I've re-assessed BTCUSD and find it likely to drop once more between $5,000 - $4,800. However, applying same analysis to LTCUSD yields a $50 bottom, which we reached.

2018年10月13日

ノート

For those following, updated BTCUSD assessment could affect LTCUSD. First chart - original BTCUSD chart improved for readability. Second chart - 24 June $5755 BTC bottom scenario.

Updated Original


24 June Bottom Scenario

2018年10月15日

ノート

Updated BTC chart and count based on Black Swan truncated fifth waves. Similar to 24 June bottom scenario but remain in current cycle. Indicates potential for LTC cycle to remain correlated with BTC’s.

2018年10月31日

ノート

Wrapping up a wave 1. Targets for next wave indicated in chart.

2018年10月31日

ノート

More details if you click chart.