POC Pressure Cooker – MES Prepares for Volatility

We’re heading into the NY session with MES balancing between key levels. The 50% retracement of the recent range (6436) is acting as a pivot, while the POC at 6428 is the immediate area of interest. The structure is tight here’s both sides of the play:

Key Levels to Watch:
- Upper Range: 6457–6460 (recent swing high)
- Mid-Range Pivot: 6436 (Fib 50%)
- POC & Support Zone: 6428 (volume shelf)
- Lower Range: 6415 → 6400

🟩 Bullish Scenario

A breakout and hold above 6440–6445 could lead to a retest of 6457–6460, with potential continuation to 6470+ if momentum accelerates.

- Confluence: Higher low structure above 6428, EMAs curling up, and price reacting positively to POC.
- Invalidation: Clean break and close below 6428.

🟥 Bearish Scenario
A failure to hold 6430 and a push through 6428 (POC) could see sellers target 6415, then possibly 6400.

- Confluence: Descending red trend line still capping price, and VWAP rejections could support a downside move.
- Invalidation: Break above 6457 with strong buyer aggression.

Staakd Notes:
This is a range-play environment. The real edge is in waiting for a break + retest of 6440 or 6428 to confirm direction. NY open volatility is likely to provide a fake out before the true move. Give it 30 mins from open.

Closing Line:
“Price is coiled between POC and the 50% mark. We’ll let NY open show its hand then react, not predict.”