Meta Platformsショート
Is $META a VALUE TRAP stock??
アップデート済
I've been keeping an eye on this stock during the last year. In the beginning, I couldn't understand the punishment by the market that this stock was receiving.
The stock lost around 60% of its price from its all-time highs in September 2021.
A company trading at 8X EV/EBTIDA and in a range from 13X-15X P/E in 2022 may seem like a value investing opportunity.
They haven't lost users on their platforms. However, businesses reduced their ADVERTISEMENT BUDGET.
Surprisingly, with changes in iOS 14.5 (Mid 2021), issues for advertisers who rely on META to sustain their businesses appeared.
The Q2 2022 Earnings proved the deceleration of META's growth. The stock crashed, while the rest of the techs were rising from 5-10%.
Don't take me wrong, META is a fantastic business. No debt, high margins, growth, buybacks, it has everything that the books taught us.
The USA Economy is in a recession, companies are going to cut costs in order to remain profitable (those who can). This means layoffs, caution in undertaking new investment projects, cutting advertisement budgets... and here is where META is going to be hurt.
META has pricing power and MOAT, the problem is that the demand for ads will decrease due to the recession (as we saw in the last earnings release).
META still has a lot to do in order to make Reality Labs a meaningful and robust stream of income in their business model.
For the short-term, I remain short for META. But this doesn't mean that when things recover over the long-term, and the Reality Labs investment starts to flourish, we can see even higher margins in the company and more growth. This is the only way I seeMETA making new all-time highs.
From a technical point of view, if the price breaks the $155 support level, we can see it between $120-$140.
If it remains in this lateral channel, we can see it going up to $170-$180, even $195 if there is some kind of momentum.
Overall, I would prefer to stay out of it till it goes out from this bearish channel. I see the stock trading at $120-$140 till the end of the year.
I have some stocks for the moment that I'm planning to sell at breakeven ($180).
If I don't have the opportunity to sell now, I will HOLD them for the long run, probably add if I see it at $120.
The stock lost around 60% of its price from its all-time highs in September 2021.
A company trading at 8X EV/EBTIDA and in a range from 13X-15X P/E in 2022 may seem like a value investing opportunity.
They haven't lost users on their platforms. However, businesses reduced their ADVERTISEMENT BUDGET.
Surprisingly, with changes in iOS 14.5 (Mid 2021), issues for advertisers who rely on META to sustain their businesses appeared.
The Q2 2022 Earnings proved the deceleration of META's growth. The stock crashed, while the rest of the techs were rising from 5-10%.
Don't take me wrong, META is a fantastic business. No debt, high margins, growth, buybacks, it has everything that the books taught us.
The USA Economy is in a recession, companies are going to cut costs in order to remain profitable (those who can). This means layoffs, caution in undertaking new investment projects, cutting advertisement budgets... and here is where META is going to be hurt.
META has pricing power and MOAT, the problem is that the demand for ads will decrease due to the recession (as we saw in the last earnings release).
META still has a lot to do in order to make Reality Labs a meaningful and robust stream of income in their business model.
For the short-term, I remain short for META. But this doesn't mean that when things recover over the long-term, and the Reality Labs investment starts to flourish, we can see even higher margins in the company and more growth. This is the only way I see
META making new all-time highs.From a technical point of view, if the price breaks the $155 support level, we can see it between $120-$140.
If it remains in this lateral channel, we can see it going up to $170-$180, even $195 if there is some kind of momentum.
Overall, I would prefer to stay out of it till it goes out from this bearish channel. I see the stock trading at $120-$140 till the end of the year.
I have some stocks for the moment that I'm planning to sell at breakeven ($180).
If I don't have the opportunity to sell now, I will HOLD them for the long run, probably add if I see it at $120.
ノート
03/08/22 - META is jumping 5%, while the 
US100 is +2.75%We see an excess of optimism. The price is going to face some resistance at $170, I expect a pullback tomorrow, after this considerable upside and then it will try to break the levels of $170-$175.
If we close the week at around $176, we can see it between $180-$200 till the end of August.
I stick with the plan mentioned above.
Good luck.
ノート
10/08/22 - META had a 7% upside today.Position closed automatically @ $180.
The price action is going as projected in my bullish scenario. Probably today is closing above $173, this could drive the price to $180-$200 till the end of August. But, I don't recommend a trade now, it can reverse at every moment, we are close to solid resistances.
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