Micron Technology Inc: massive growth and massive retreat
Micron holds a track record of an extremely volatile stock (Beta 2.7) in a history of past 30 years. Having analyzed all the instances when the stock had massive growth followed with similar retreat, there have been few of them (no matter what were macro/ micro causes):
1995 it saw a 12 fold, 2000 – 10 fold, 2014 – 7 fold, 2018 – 7 fold, by early ’22 – 3.5 and finally by mid’24 – 3,25 GROWTH
*Zoom in the attached monthly chat too see actual price swings and length of impulse, corrective waves. Remember, I used those impulse waves resulting in RSI to be extremely overbought (i.e. red bars on RSI chart
If in 90s/ early 2000s it retreated fibo .9, .9, 1.04 - in other words it practically gave up all the massive gains after RSI was in overbought, Then last 10 years the stock held more relative strength, less volatility and retreats were: in ’14 - .87; ’18 - .67; 22 - .7 & mid ’24 - .67
It indicates, that the recent June – August retracement of .67 is generally in line with the latest decade cases (the length of the last upward wave was 109 and a correction wave to August low was 73. Out of the local low, if the history doesn’t fail us, I would consider a 3-fold growth is possible. 85 to 255 on a horizon of the next two years or so. GLTAL!
1995 it saw a 12 fold, 2000 – 10 fold, 2014 – 7 fold, 2018 – 7 fold, by early ’22 – 3.5 and finally by mid’24 – 3,25 GROWTH
*Zoom in the attached monthly chat too see actual price swings and length of impulse, corrective waves. Remember, I used those impulse waves resulting in RSI to be extremely overbought (i.e. red bars on RSI chart
If in 90s/ early 2000s it retreated fibo .9, .9, 1.04 - in other words it practically gave up all the massive gains after RSI was in overbought, Then last 10 years the stock held more relative strength, less volatility and retreats were: in ’14 - .87; ’18 - .67; 22 - .7 & mid ’24 - .67
It indicates, that the recent June – August retracement of .67 is generally in line with the latest decade cases (the length of the last upward wave was 109 and a correction wave to August low was 73. Out of the local low, if the history doesn’t fail us, I would consider a 3-fold growth is possible. 85 to 255 on a horizon of the next two years or so. GLTAL!
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