ロング

Despite Selloff, NANO Remains Bullish Against Bitcoin

アップデート済

Time for a NANOBTC update! My previous Nano analysis was on the USD pairing. Decided to do this next one on the NANOBTC chart.

What's interesting about this pairing is that NANO is still more than 100% up on its Bitcoin ratio since August. I had a feeling that NANO would not drop much against Bitcoin, even if it dropped to the 3K-4K area. The reason for this is that unlike most cryptos, NANOBTC actually showed a strong reversal back in August, and has since maintained its new support in the 2500-2600 area. I did say in my last analysis that worst case scenario, I'd expect NANOBTC to test the low 2000 area (which has already happened since the selloff). We successfully tested those levels and are already back near previous strong support. This is pretty bullish.

Now things are getting more interesting. I've speculated recently that the earliest the bear market could end would be early 2019 (late January, in particular). This happens to align with Bakkt, as well as the completion of NANOBTC's potential adam & eve double bottom (green line on my chart). HOWEVER, we are approaching a big descending resistance (in pink), and if the market continues to look weak, we could drop back down to lower supports, and test the USD lows of $0.75. Based on my earlier analysis, I think it's pretty unlikely that we go below $0.75, as buying strength in that zone is ENORMOUS. However, we can't rule it out if Bitcoin decides to test below 3K. The NANOUSD chart doesn't look nearly as good, but it also has a decent chance for a double bottom (although more extreme).

My bias is long right now (added a small amount in the current $1-$1.10 support), but of course we can fail at resistance. Based on what seems like bullish accumulation in this area, I think it is more likely that we break out, but what do I know? We'd need to get above 2650 and 2700 for starters. After that, 3000 would be the next target for NANO. I would then expect the new rounded bottom to complete, and the entire crypto bear market to reverse along with it. I see NANO as a major gauge of investor sentiment for this space, since it's one of the more hyped coins in the market, due to its advantages over Bitcoin and new speculators betting on it to gather a bigger share of the crypto market as adoption accelerates.

There is a case to be made for a multi-year bear market. In this case, my idea will be invalidated.

Support:
2200
2400
2500

Resistance:
2650
2700
3000
3400
4000
5600
6000

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor am I a professional financial advisor.

-Victor Cobra

Previous NANO analysis:

NANO, and How I Used it To Time a Bottom

ノート

We are now very close to the pink resistance. If Bitcoin can make a surprise breakout here, we should push through that resistance quickly. However, the market is looking pretty weak overall, so I think this has a higher chance of dropping at this point. If we break the 2230 recent support, it would probably signal a fast drop below 2000 in order to test August lows (1200-1500).

ノート

If NANO ends up breaking below 2000 and under $0.75, my view on this coin will shift to more bearish. As long as we stay above August lows, I'm bullish. But even the best performing coins won't be able to escape new lows if Bitcoin makes another steep drop.

ノート

Bitcoin hasn't dumped much more today, so let's see if NANO can break out. We'll know one way or another in the next few days.

ノート

The market looks pretty ugly. Bitcoin couldn't even sustain that bounce much. I'd say the bias is still for us to move down and test those extreme lows. Trading right now is risky though. If the bulls decide to suddenly take control, we can explode upwards quickly. The resistance between 2500 and 2650 for NANO seems to be too much though, as we keep sloping downwards (meaning sell pressure is actually building). This is really DCAing territory. If you believe in NANO, anything from $1 down to $0.75 is a good buy. Below the August low of 0.75....and we're in uncharted bearish territory. We may even get down to $0.30, although I really hope this doesn't happen. In this case, I'd create a new chart.

ノート

Looks like we've been following the red line on my chart so far, which is the bearish scenario. We should see some strong buying action occur between $0.75 and $0.85, but if not...things will look pretty grim for the future. Hold on tight!

ノート

Added to my portfolio at $0.80 yesterday, just as I did in August. We're seeing a nice bounce up to the resistance now. If Bitcoin can finally sustain here, maybe we can break out towards 2650 and out of this downtrend. We've reached a number of important psychological price levels for some alts, so I'm not surprised at all to see some buying here.

ノート

looks like we're getting rejected again and Bitcoin didn't even succeed in getting back above the previous 3500 support. Things still looking pretty grim. Bitcoin really needs to follow through with a short squeeze one of these days, in order to provide any sort of true relief rally.

ノート

One thing I can definitely say is that trading here would be very stressful. Lots of big moves up and down. Happy to have added for long term in the 3.3K area, for now. Think it's time to let my portfolio sit for a bit.

ノート

This resistance is getting so obvious and frustrating that I think it's likely we'll see a major selloff soon. However, a breakout would be equally as strong. If you're trading or waiting on the sidelines, it's probably to wait for confirmation.
Bearish confirmation: Candle close below the previous low of 2237 with volume.
Bullish confirmation: Candle close above the pink resistance at 2500 with volume.

ノート

We also have a chance for a double bottom, if we get near the previous low and get rejected. This would be an opportunity to push above the descending resistance. Better to wait on the sidelines for now.

ノート

Making yet another resistance breakout attempt here. If we close and hold above 2450, that would be a good sign for a further push up. Perhaps we can stabilize above $1 again. On the other hand, if we get smacked down again here, we may see people capitulate, which would send us down below 2200 (my red scenario).

ノート

Volume is extremely low, which indicates that we are nearing the end of consolidation. One way or another, we should expect a big move soon.

ノート

Our 4 hour candle closed above the pink resistance, but we're not out of the woods yet. We need some big buy volume to step in soon, or this will become another failed breakout. There's another resistance to watch around 2480 (second pink line). Safer entry would probably be closing above there.

ノート

Still holding the same resistance line. Interestingly enough, NANO hasn't dropped much in BTC value over the last few days. As I expected, it would take a lot to break NANO down below $0.75, which was the August bottom. If I were using it to time a market-wide bottom again, I'd say now would be a good time to buy...except that things look pretty worrisome. We could also just slide out of resistance and continue to drop anyway. If you believe in crypto long term, today is a good DCA point, in my opinion, if you're not looking to trade (I'm not trading right now either).

ノート

We've finally broken down from the 2400 area, and are now barely holding the $0.75 support. Things can get very ugly if we don't break out from this downtrend soon. We may slide down the diagonal line until we get back to the 1200 area, just like VET has done.

ノート

We've managed to hold onto $0.75 for now. If we continue to hold there, we might see a market wide relief rally soon. However, NANO is still sliding down in a clear downtrend. I'm about to go on vacation tomorrow, and won't be updating for a while. I guess we'll see where this ends up when I'm back.

ノート

I will say this, it's pretty impressive that NANO has not really made a new USD low during this bear market. That was pretty much the message of this chart to begin with. We have good support at $0.75, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a rally back up to the $1 area at least if Bitcoin continues to hold 3K.

ノート

On the hourly chart, by the way, we seem to have broken out of the first resistance and are attempting to break the second line. Watch for a stronger breakout here, or a rejection that could send us to new lows.

ノート

Just found out that Troy Retzer has left the NANO project. He was a major contributor to their community. Unfortunately we could see some people sell off as a result of this, as confidence in the team may be finally waning. Just a warning to everyone that we could be on the verge of a major breakdown below $0.75. Be careful out there! I'm leaving tomorrow morning, so won't be responding or updating for a couple weeks.

ノート

This level has continued to hold and we're back up to $0.80 for now and sliding out of resistance. I figured we'd have some pretty strong support in this area from August, since that caused such a violent move up. Flying out soon so this will probably be my last update for now. This could be the start of a big relief wave for the market that could take us all the way back up to $4.8-5.2K, depending on the timeframe. I think it may be a pretty slow wave up so there might be plenty of time to assess.

ノート

The relief rally for the market is going a little faster than I expected, so I'll post a quick update. We've made it back to $1, which was an area I was expecting. Not sure if we can hold here for now since Bitcoin looks like it needs a pullback. 2650-2700 has proven very strong resistance. We need a lot more fuel to break that area, but when it does, we'll likely have a powerful wave up. Perhaps we can get to $1.60-1.90. At least we have finally broken out of the downtrend and are now moving sideways. Here is my overall market analysis that I have been updating since the 6K breakdown:

A Crypto Year In Review - Life ends, but death lasts forever

ノート

Interestingly, NANO actually seems to be forming the rounded bottom I thought could happen a while ago. Based on Bitcoin's bubble history, I also speculated that NANO could have a significant price increase in late January or February (you can read why in my previous NANO analysis linked above somewhere). We might be stuck here for a while, in that case.

ノート

Working on that resistance ; )
Took a while for this to break out since I posted this chart, but it goes to show you how important being patient is.

ノート

Quick update, since I'm back now. We broke out of the triangle resistance, but we didn't see much follow through. As a result, we have slid back down to the 2400 area for support. My original speculation was that Nano would make its major comeback in late January/early February. Still time for that to come true. For now, we seem to be forming an extended bottom. If Bitcoin forms an inverse head and shoulders bottom and breaks up soon, Nano could follow as well.

ノート

This really looks like a long term accumulation phase to me. We've broken out of all our downtrends and have remained relatively flat and still well above the bottom value. I think it's very possible that we do see a surge in price soon, as the accumulation phase ends. In my first NANO analysis, I speculated that NANO would boom close to February 19 (aligning with Bitcoin's boom and bust from 2011). Doesn't have to play out, but I think it would be interesting if it did.

ノート

That's February, 2019. Not February 19th. Anyway, we had a nice bullish doji today. A good sign that this is still accumulation and that we should eventually see a major push up. Obviously, if we break below this green zone, we will have to go lower to find bigger buyers. I don't really see that happening though, at this point.

ノート

The market is starting to look like it's on the verge of another major selloff, so I wouldn't discount the possibility that NANO could actually slide to new lows. It's possible we've actually been in a sort of descending triangle pattern since August. If we break down below 2283, this is surely possible. But perhaps this is the feeling most new investors/traders get when it's close to bottom and hope seems very far away.

ノート

As I suggested earlier, this area seems to be a major accumulation zone. We are at resistance again, so don't be surprised if we slide back. However, the market could be gearing up for a major move up (many alts are showing signs that they had bottomed out on their ratios). If we break convincingly above 2800, we should move up to the 3300-3400 resistance next. A major selloff is also still possible, since Bitcoin has stagnated so much. Just stay on your toes.

ノート

Aaaand we're back down again. As I've suggested could happen through all my main analyses, we've dropped hard. NANO is still holding the 2400 area. Obviously a break below previous lows would be bad, but we still haven't done that since August. If the market continues lower, I think we'll see a giant capitulation event soon. In this case, many alts might just briefly drop below all their known supports before rebounding. Many people will probably get screwed over by a move like this.

ノート

Since bears have so far failed to take advantage of a drop that could have sent us straight to new lows, buyers have stepped in again for NANO. The support in this 2300-2400 zone is extremely powerful. Patience still may be required before we can really blast through all those sells stacked in the 2600-2700 area.

ノート

Even though our support is strong, that also means that if it's broken, it could produce a powerful wave down, like what happened with Bitcoin at 6K. I think this would only happen during a final capitulation event for the market though.

ノート

Dangerously close to support now. A capitulation low soon is definitely in the cards. We've tested our USD low of $0.75 successfully, and we may have to do it for a third time. If that level falls, we might have to test our bitcoin low around 1200 as well, which is more than a 50% decline from current prices. We're still nearing my earliest timeframe for the end of the bear market. We just have a couple weeks until the end of January. We should see a significant shift in the market by then (whether that be to more extreme lows or a confirmation that the bottom is in).

ノート

Looks like NANO is trying to break out of this longer term triangle. We're trapped in a wedge at the moment, but we could see a powerful move to the upside if Bitcoin continues to find some buying support.

ノート

The bigger triangle goes all the way back to October. It could in theory extend until late February, which is still in the realm of my earliest timeframe for the end of the bear market. However, this looks like a descending triangle pattern that shows weakening buy pressure. It's possible this could break down as well to test the lower levels one more time. If $0.75 breaks though....it would be very bad news. I'd watch for a breakout sometime soon.