The bears are awake

wsbzaの投稿

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Close below 1.21545 would at least eliminate the alternative triangle correction

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We may label the internal structure differently but it will not alter the overall structure

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Bearish count

We could expect a 5 waves sequence to complete larger degree wave 1 or A
Green wave (i) ended at 1.2216, close above this level would argue a different wave count

short-term target 1: 1.1992 if green wave (iii) equals to 1.618 times the length of wave (i)
short-term target 2: 1.1827 if blue wave {iii} equals to 1.618 times the length of wave {i}
short-term target 3: end of wave 4 at 1.1554

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2.618 Fib extension at 1.17312

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the dollar index says Euro may decline further

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short-term bear still alive

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alter count: ending diagonal to complete green wave (v)
red wave 1 circle = blue iii of green (v)
red wave 2 circle = blue iv of green (v)
but we need a swift rally breaking the end of red wave 2 circle first
there is no price evidence to confirm the above count so far

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expecting blue wave iv circle correction will end within 38.2% - 50% retracement level

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blue wave iv circle is still under way

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grey triangle wave {iv} or blue wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) for {v}

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the triangle could be the best interpretation so far

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break above wave (c) high of 1.17908 would invalid the triangle count

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short-term sell set up

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ready for sell again?

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it seems wave (e) of {iv} is still unfolding

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wave (e) could be a double zigzag w-x-y or a-b-c-d-e triangle

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time to secure some profits

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possible count 1

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possible count 2

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another new low is still possible, no need to rush into catch the bottom

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EURO has broken the red wave (i) low today. it tells us this is not wave (iv) correction, which also suggests the above bullish case is under way.
We can still argue the red (i) to (v) could be only wave (i) of {v} of 1 or A, but i think it's less likely to happen.
A solid close above the end of wave {iv} at 1.1747 would confirm the 5-waves decline sequence since February has ended

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expanded flat ?

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almost there?

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a lower degree bullish flag would signal a good buy opportunity

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It seems we can label the sub wave v of (c) as an ending diagonal

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bullish target towards 1.18647 where wave {c} travels the same distance as wave {a}

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break below green wave {b} low at 1.14322 would activate alternative count in grey

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let's review the larger structure

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any close below the blue wave {b} low would argue wave 2 or B finished at 1.18153 (Sept high)

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the short-term key support level is the end of blue wave {b} at 1.13021, break below this would eliminate the wave and green count.

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time to adopt more bearish count

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bearish count

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The short-term pattern does not look bearish, maybe a complex {ii} or even wave 2 (or B) is still unfolding

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It is possible to count wave {ii} has finished at 1.14968 (2nd Jan), where sub wave (c) is an ending diagonal. But the correction could be more complex.

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