The NASDAQ Fractal
アップデート済
While we are talking about the Bitcoin fractal / logistic curve, I decided to analyze the second bubbly candidate, NDQ/NDX.
The .com bubble was fast and extensive, so in retrospect it is easy to see that it was a big bubble. The 2008-2021 big-tech mania may not be apparent but if we just rescale the chart on the price axis (not date) we see that the 1994-2000 part is highly correlated to the 2015-2021 price action. This is the bubble part of the two growths.
The overlapping part is quite satisfactory in the way it moves together. Considering the simplistic method of analysis I did.
We should scale things down since growth follows a fibonacci movement, not a linear one. Nature forces each growth to be some golden ratio smaller than the previous one. Either we like it or not...
I drew a retracement from the 2000 peak to the 1994 beginning, and moved it to 2015 as a start.
The bubble part of the 2015-2021 growth is significantly lower when compared to the 1994-2000 growth. Do note that in both instances a 6 year period is analyzed. The decreased rate of change is apparent.
There are numerous comparisons one can make.
Again retracement is copied and moved, not rescaled in any way.
I always tried to find a peak in NDQ. It wasn't until I tried fitting the .com bubble to the today's bubble that everything made sense. The chart got completed on it's own. A theoretical peak in NDQ will be on the 1.618 ratio of the .com bubble. It is quite far from here but with this candle pattern it makes sense. I have basically copied the 1985-2022 period and pasted on 2006. As I said before, the chart is rescaled only on price. And would you like to know how much I ended up scaling the chart? By a factor of .618
Conclusion: NASDAQ has it in it's DNA. Periods of incredible gains and periods of painful losses. This year it significantly underperformed the other main indices.
For the near future, with so many new technologies coming, it wouldn't be extreme to witness another bubble after a painful drop. We are dependent on technology, so it's sector will gain.
Final note: Bubbles and their patterns can be incredible sometimes.
80 years apart, back then with pen and paper, in 2000 on computer screens. Yet the bubble peak is identical.
PS. It appears from the chart, in pure speculation that sometime in the future we will violate this important trendline. Perhaps in 2040's robots will overtake the world and we will abolish technology once and for all. Curiously, a while back I listened to a song titled 2042 by Active Member. It's in Greek so don't bother looking for it if you don't understand the language.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
The .com bubble was fast and extensive, so in retrospect it is easy to see that it was a big bubble. The 2008-2021 big-tech mania may not be apparent but if we just rescale the chart on the price axis (not date) we see that the 1994-2000 part is highly correlated to the 2015-2021 price action. This is the bubble part of the two growths.
The overlapping part is quite satisfactory in the way it moves together. Considering the simplistic method of analysis I did.
We should scale things down since growth follows a fibonacci movement, not a linear one. Nature forces each growth to be some golden ratio smaller than the previous one. Either we like it or not...
I drew a retracement from the 2000 peak to the 1994 beginning, and moved it to 2015 as a start.
The bubble part of the 2015-2021 growth is significantly lower when compared to the 1994-2000 growth. Do note that in both instances a 6 year period is analyzed. The decreased rate of change is apparent.
There are numerous comparisons one can make.
Again retracement is copied and moved, not rescaled in any way.
I always tried to find a peak in NDQ. It wasn't until I tried fitting the .com bubble to the today's bubble that everything made sense. The chart got completed on it's own. A theoretical peak in NDQ will be on the 1.618 ratio of the .com bubble. It is quite far from here but with this candle pattern it makes sense. I have basically copied the 1985-2022 period and pasted on 2006. As I said before, the chart is rescaled only on price. And would you like to know how much I ended up scaling the chart? By a factor of .618
Conclusion: NASDAQ has it in it's DNA. Periods of incredible gains and periods of painful losses. This year it significantly underperformed the other main indices.
For the near future, with so many new technologies coming, it wouldn't be extreme to witness another bubble after a painful drop. We are dependent on technology, so it's sector will gain.
Final note: Bubbles and their patterns can be incredible sometimes.
80 years apart, back then with pen and paper, in 2000 on computer screens. Yet the bubble peak is identical.
PS. It appears from the chart, in pure speculation that sometime in the future we will violate this important trendline. Perhaps in 2040's robots will overtake the world and we will abolish technology once and for all. Curiously, a while back I listened to a song titled 2042 by Active Member. It's in Greek so don't bother looking for it if you don't understand the language.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
ノート
Is Bitcoin trapped near-term???Take a close look at the MESA stochastic oscillator. It is trapped in a wedge pattern.
This "crazy" idea by LevRidge could even make sense...
Retracement taken from SPY_Master's idea.
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