Long-term Triangle Pattern

アップデート済

Nike is getting close to the apex of a 4-year triangle pattern (where price inevitably breaks one way or the other). For now, I'm just watching for a certain setup to potentially trade on. If it breaks down out of the triangle (which it is currently threatening), it may find support around the 200-mo. EMA, which would be a better price to start a position. That said, it could certainly find support here but there isn't much upside to the top of the pattern (unless it breaks out).

ノート

The 50-mo. EMA has flattened out, which makes me suspect that a test of the 200-mo. EMA could be coming.

ノート

Close enough to the 200-mo. EMA that I will start a position in Nike soon (hopefully by the end of the week; need to add some funds to my account). I don't have a stop loss, will plan to average down if it drops significantly below the 200-mo. EMA (will update this idea if that happens when I feel like it has fallen enough to average down).

ノート

Plan is to start a position early next week and hold some back in case it falls a bit below the 200-mo. EMA (I suspect that it may but it could also find support right around here just above the 200-mo. EMA). Then, as I said yesterday, I'll average down if it continues to fall significantly below the 200-mo. EMA (I hope that doesn't happen but good to have a plan in case it does).

トレード稼働中

Officially started a position this morning.

ノート

Here's a chart that includes the 200-mo. SMA which I find interesting. It's currently just under 60/share, so if it falls to that level I'll invest what I held back earlier this week.

ノート

Trade is looking good so far. Still might get down to the level where I would buy more shares (~$60). What I'm looking for with this trade is an eventual retest and hopefully breakout of the all-time high (currently $173, adjusted for dividends). If support ends up holding here at the 200-mo. EMA (or SMA), then the breakdown of the triangle pattern would prove to be a false breakdown or fakeout which could result in an aggressive counter rally. Fundamentally, I don't think Nike is going anywhere. It appears to have dropped due to guidance provided at last earnings report. The next earnings report in late September will be interesting, will probably either confirm that support held at the 200-mo. EMA or could provide an opportunity for me to add around the 200-mo. SMA.

ノート

Looks like it wants to retest the 200-mo. EMA (not a good sign). My plan is still to add if it tests the 200-mo. SMA (about 10/share lower than the EMA). I updated the chart with a dotted trend line based on monthly closing prices.