Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is Coming
アップデート済
Everywhere I look I hear the narrative that we should be making new lows and everyone should be dumping because the Federal Reserve won't pivot and because the inflation keeps going up.
Yet, at the same time that they make that argument, they completely ignore what the Dow Jones did in October, which was no less than a 4,300 point rally forming an outside bar.
Dow has always been the weakest index. It fell farther during Coronavirus Disease 2019 hysteria. It rallied less during the greatest bull market of all time. It dumped more during this year's corrections.
Yet, the Nasdaq and the SPX have lagged it, and lagged it hard, during last month's 2022 Low of the Year recovery.
This should have any bull's interest piqued, and yet, because prices are low, they're not. People just want to get short. Everyone is telling you to look below October's low.
Sometimes I think to myself that people actually like buying high and selling low, if only because they're just very attached to "seeing" and "confirmation." Ordinary people all follow this idea that "I won't believe what I don't see" and are completely unwilling to exercise even a modicum faith.
It's fundamentally irrational.
Yet, if you never change this deficiency, you will never be able to leave the bottom of the Cosmos and the bottom of life. The whales will always eat you, for you will always be plankton.
As with all fractals, take a step back and look at the wider horizon. Nasdaq would have to fall another 10% from its October LOY to bounce off the pre-COVID highs, something which that pesky Dow already did in June.
Not only that, but Nasdaq left two really significant areas of low volume on its way down this year. One of those areas just happens to be right above the August bear market rally highs.
Taking a look at the weekly, we can see that for six straight weeks, Nasdaq trades under equilibrium for the total COVID-panic <--> all time high range.
When people who are trading billion dollar position sizes take a look at this phenomenon, they're looking to get long, but hedging short. Unlike retail, who wants to buy puts thinking that 6,000 will come on CPI Thursday.
On the daily, we can see that there's a lot of manipulation around this trendline superstition. "Meh June low trendline support has become resistance. This is going down!" is what every retail trader has been Pavlov's Dogged into believing and thinking.
Nasdaq tends to be the most wild of the indexes. If Nasdaq had have traded like the Dow just did, it would have traded to 13,000 points.
Assuming that SPX and Nasdaq follow in the footsteps of Dow in this bear market rally, and don't kid yourself, Friday's price action should indicate to you that we're going higher, not heading for new lows, Nasdaq is likely to be more insane than the Dow, and very likely to take out the August bear market high.
While all and all I believe you're looking at a pending 30% rally, from where we stand now, you have 1,000 points to gain being long just to take out the October equal highs. This is enough to formulate trades with and make some good money on without having to take on a lot of risk.
Specifically, some of the key (and not-so key) tech stocks are set up to go totally rocketship. At least in my opinion:
AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and Gloom
&
META Facebook/Meta - Too Much Bear, Not Enough Bull
&
BBIG Vimco Ventures - A Classic Triangle Pump
Trade carefully. When the Chinese Communist Party falls, it will happen while the US equities market is closed. Indexes will gap down 20% and stocks will gap down 50%. There won't be a recovery because every single bank will be completely risk off.
Almost all of Wall Street has dirty hands providing financial "blood transfusions" to the most evil and murderous regime in all of human history, one which despite having killed many times more people than Hitler, and having perpetrated the organ harvesting persecution of Falun Gong practitioners, has not only remained in power for more than 100 years, but it and its Marxist-Leninism is supported by virtually every government and its people in the whole world.
A lot of people, institutions, governments, and companies will run for their lives the day that Xi Jinping throws the Party away like Gorbachev threw the USSR away, because the nature of having a closet full of skeletons is that once sunlight is cast upon those unprecedented sins, the game ends in Checkmate.
"What an ordinary person believes can happen and what is actually happening are always two totally different things." -Lord Wrymouth
[Note: Although I am calling a monster rally, you should understand that if this scenario unfolds, it really is a harbinger of doom. There is a reason bear market rallies are so fast and so insane. It will happen precisely because we will see Nasdaq print like 7,000 or 8,000 as a 2023 low. By the time we get to the top, you will have forgotten about this warning. All the "furus" you follow and all the signal services you obey will be telling you that new all time highs are coming. You will buy the top. And then you will blow your account.]
Yet, at the same time that they make that argument, they completely ignore what the Dow Jones did in October, which was no less than a 4,300 point rally forming an outside bar.
Dow has always been the weakest index. It fell farther during Coronavirus Disease 2019 hysteria. It rallied less during the greatest bull market of all time. It dumped more during this year's corrections.
Yet, the Nasdaq and the SPX have lagged it, and lagged it hard, during last month's 2022 Low of the Year recovery.
This should have any bull's interest piqued, and yet, because prices are low, they're not. People just want to get short. Everyone is telling you to look below October's low.
Sometimes I think to myself that people actually like buying high and selling low, if only because they're just very attached to "seeing" and "confirmation." Ordinary people all follow this idea that "I won't believe what I don't see" and are completely unwilling to exercise even a modicum faith.
It's fundamentally irrational.
Yet, if you never change this deficiency, you will never be able to leave the bottom of the Cosmos and the bottom of life. The whales will always eat you, for you will always be plankton.
As with all fractals, take a step back and look at the wider horizon. Nasdaq would have to fall another 10% from its October LOY to bounce off the pre-COVID highs, something which that pesky Dow already did in June.
Not only that, but Nasdaq left two really significant areas of low volume on its way down this year. One of those areas just happens to be right above the August bear market rally highs.
Taking a look at the weekly, we can see that for six straight weeks, Nasdaq trades under equilibrium for the total COVID-panic <--> all time high range.
When people who are trading billion dollar position sizes take a look at this phenomenon, they're looking to get long, but hedging short. Unlike retail, who wants to buy puts thinking that 6,000 will come on CPI Thursday.
On the daily, we can see that there's a lot of manipulation around this trendline superstition. "Meh June low trendline support has become resistance. This is going down!" is what every retail trader has been Pavlov's Dogged into believing and thinking.
Nasdaq tends to be the most wild of the indexes. If Nasdaq had have traded like the Dow just did, it would have traded to 13,000 points.
Assuming that SPX and Nasdaq follow in the footsteps of Dow in this bear market rally, and don't kid yourself, Friday's price action should indicate to you that we're going higher, not heading for new lows, Nasdaq is likely to be more insane than the Dow, and very likely to take out the August bear market high.
While all and all I believe you're looking at a pending 30% rally, from where we stand now, you have 1,000 points to gain being long just to take out the October equal highs. This is enough to formulate trades with and make some good money on without having to take on a lot of risk.
Specifically, some of the key (and not-so key) tech stocks are set up to go totally rocketship. At least in my opinion:
AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and Gloom
&
META Facebook/Meta - Too Much Bear, Not Enough Bull
&
BBIG Vimco Ventures - A Classic Triangle Pump
Trade carefully. When the Chinese Communist Party falls, it will happen while the US equities market is closed. Indexes will gap down 20% and stocks will gap down 50%. There won't be a recovery because every single bank will be completely risk off.
Almost all of Wall Street has dirty hands providing financial "blood transfusions" to the most evil and murderous regime in all of human history, one which despite having killed many times more people than Hitler, and having perpetrated the organ harvesting persecution of Falun Gong practitioners, has not only remained in power for more than 100 years, but it and its Marxist-Leninism is supported by virtually every government and its people in the whole world.
A lot of people, institutions, governments, and companies will run for their lives the day that Xi Jinping throws the Party away like Gorbachev threw the USSR away, because the nature of having a closet full of skeletons is that once sunlight is cast upon those unprecedented sins, the game ends in Checkmate.
"What an ordinary person believes can happen and what is actually happening are always two totally different things." -Lord Wrymouth
[Note: Although I am calling a monster rally, you should understand that if this scenario unfolds, it really is a harbinger of doom. There is a reason bear market rallies are so fast and so insane. It will happen precisely because we will see Nasdaq print like 7,000 or 8,000 as a 2023 low. By the time we get to the top, you will have forgotten about this warning. All the "furus" you follow and all the signal services you obey will be telling you that new all time highs are coming. You will buy the top. And then you will blow your account.]
ノート
I currently believe that what will underpin this move is Apple setting a new all time high, which I have just called. It's set up to go hard.Apple comprises 14% of the Nasdaq.
ノート
Few believe it. But Nasdaq really is about to moon.It's when everyone is on board with the pump that you want to be scared.
ノート
So on first glance it would seem like it was the "news" that drove the price right?"Oh! CPI came in 2/10ths lower than estimated! Federal Reserve maybe gonna pivot now!"
But look at how this plays out on the daily candle.
If you had no idea about the news and were just a chart watcher, you'd think this was just a smooth continuation of already pre-existing price action.
News doesn't drive price. Wall Street knows what is going to happen in advance. These guys dealing with billions of dollars in positions aren't clownworld like Sam Bankman-Fried. Big data analysis gives them great accuracy into what is coming.
News is ***used to drive the price action already set up in the charts***
This is true for the cryptocrash, as well.
ノート
Nobody believes it until they see it. But there's quite an interesting fractal developing on the SPX based on last CPI. You'll have to go take a look because it's too many screenshots to post.
Friday could be one of the best dips to buy for the foreseeable future.
ノート
To tell you the truth, now that SPX and Nasdaq have taken out their double tops and SPX has flirted with 4,000, I don't like how they're trading one bit. There's still the looming threat of what's up with crypto, while we're entering into the weekend.
There's one big difference between Nasdaq/SPX and the Dow, besides that Dow went up a ton despite being the weakest index.
And that's that Dow went way lower, twice.
SPX and Nasadq stayed far away from their COVID highs and also wick pivoted.
I still believe 14,000 is coming. But we may see sudden retreats first.
ノート
Friends, I have a feeling that this FTX drama takes SPX and Nasdaq to their COVID lows a'la Dow and cuts the rally short before we get going.That kind of dump may be sudden, and may not last long.
But with how Nasdaq and friends are trading it could fall from a high place.
So be careful and be risk averse. Get in and get out and take profits.
Something is wrong with how the markets are trading for this to be a true bear market rally.
ノート
Gold is definitely correcting. In my opinion, these gaps from CPI day are poison. Hasn't gone anywhere or shown any magnitude at all after taking the two monthly highs.
Not a good dip to buy imo.
ノート
This is an old call since late November and all of December was more or less just accumulation while rich people were on vacation.With price action the way it is, I really think 14,000 Nasdaq is coming, and was also an underestimation.
I think Nasdaq will set a new high before we get the market blow up, mostly for the purposes of ultimately dumping retail with -99% bags that don't come back this time.
関連の投稿
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または保証する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類のアドバイスや推奨を意図したものではなく、またそのようなものでもありません。詳しくは利用規約をご覧ください。