Nvidia has bottomed. Time to go long.

2018年10月29日

The supply glut has been vastly overstated by bears. The thesis is that because of the cryptocurrency mining crash, the used graphic card market has been flooded with perfectly viable gtx 1070, gtx 1080 and gtx 1080ti. While this may be the case, the amount of people who shop for used GPUs is limited, most of these used gpus will never be sold before they fade into obscurity. Most people still buy new hardware, and just as Apple doesnt suffer materially from the incredible amount of used iphones on the used market, neither will nvidia.

Cloud revenue should be incredibly strong, fueled by demand for the dgx-2 supercomputer and accelerated computing in general. XLNX, MSFT and AMZN just showed incredibly strong cloud growth, something that leads me to believe Nvidia will also similarily show a strong growth in this part of its business.

Furthermore supply channels show that the 2080ti is sold out everywhere which should help lift margins further and heighten turnover ratio. source: nowinstock.net/computers/videocards/nvidia/rtx2080ti/

I suggest bulls take a long position in Nvidia with a stop at 195 where a recent double bottom has been formed. I expect a pre-earnings rally to at least 220, but possibly 230, where one can take profits to soften the blow from a possible post-earnings selloff should my thesis be incorrect.

2018年10月30日

ノート

;>) Cheeky comments boys.