Sell NZDCAD

11月26日

NZDCAD Trade Idea: Bearish Bias**

Summary:
This setup suggests a bearish outlook for NZDCAD based on a combination of seasonal trends, exogenous factors, and technical patterns.

Key Points:

- Seasonality: NZD shows bullish seasonality from Nov 25 to Dec 11, but CAD's neutrality and stronger exogenous factors provide a bearish edge for NZDCAD.

- Commitment of Traders (COT): Both NZD and CAD are at their bottoms, with non-commercial positions favoring selling pressure on both currencies.

- Exogenous Factors:
- **Balance of Payments (BOP):** NZD has a negative trend, while CAD is positive.
- **Stock Trends:** NZD displays a negative trend, whereas CAD remains positive.
- **Interest Rates (IR):** Declining interest rates negatively impact both currencies, but NZD fares slightly better than CAD.

**Conditional Scoring:**
- **Positive Factors:** NZD: 9, CAD: 11.
- **Negative Factors:** Both currencies at 4.

**Technical Patterns:**
1. **Bearish Channel** observed on the 4-hour timeframe.
2. **Head & Shoulders Formation** indicating potential downward momentum.

**Trade Bias:**
Sell NZDCAD, as exogenous factors favor CAD despite NZD's seasonal strength.

**Risk Disclaimer:** Ensure proper risk management while entering this trade.