When is altcoin season?

3 日前

When examining the “ OTHERS.D” 12-monthly chart, a clear pattern emerges for altcoin seasons. We observe three years of downward ▼ momentum and consolidation, followed by a year or more of upward ▲ momentum.

This pattern could be attributed to market cycles and investor behavior, where extended periods of consolidation are followed by explosive growth. During the consolidation phase, prices stabilize, creating a base for future gains. Once market sentiment shifts, upward momentum takes over, often leading to significant price increases.



In previous cycles, we noticed that the altcoin season typically starts after major market cycles. For example, the 2017 altcoin season followed the 2016 cycle, and the 2021 altcoin season followed the 2020 cycle. When zoomed in on the monthly chart, both the 2017 and 2021 altcoin seasons started in January. This consistent timing suggests that the next altcoin season could commence in January 2025.

However, there has already been a bullish candle close in November, which could indicate a shift in the pattern. If December also closes bullish, we might see a two-month variance in the current cycle.



By examining fractals from past cycles, we can attempt to predict where the current altcoin season might peak. The 2017 fractal indicates a duration of 151 days, with dominance potentially reaching 22% around May or June 2025. In contrast, the 2021 fractal suggests a longer cycle of 365 days, with dominance peaking at approximately 24.5% around December 2025 or January 2026.



All charts 📈 indicate that the bottom is in, and all dips are opportunities for buying. Next year's growth looks incredibly promising. 🚀

What do you think? Will the 2024/2025 Altcoin cycle follow the same pattern, or will we see a deviation?